Sunday, February 20, 2011

Why every trader is nervous about this market ???

Traders are extremely insecure about this market.Some are resorting to sure short "shorting this market" through Bear ETF or VIX......

What most traders may not know that all time low in VIX is 6....old trading range was between 6 & 16.....

Everywhere it is the talk of "too far too fast","rally cannot sustain".......

Because of the above "prophetic declaration" which has been the MANTRA since fall of 09.....We keep climbing higher & higher. Shorts & their followers are losing equity faster than they can replenish....

Market TOP has NEVER occurred when we have BEARS like Prechter,Rosenberg,Kass & every technician on this planet is scared....on the CONTRARY it is the BIGGEST "bullish indicator"....

I will turn BEARISH when i hear that all or most of the ABOVE bear have "turned bullish" & Carter Worth is talking all time HIGHS.......

SO..in the meantime, pay attention to Cab Drivers in New York City..they are not BRAGGING about getting rich in stock market.....another reliable CONTRARY indicator......

SO...where we are in stock market ?

Nasdaq closed @ 3 year & 4 month HIGH......

Another 30 points UP in Nasdaq, we will be @ 10 yr high.....NOW that will be impressive HEADLINE in few days...then all the piggy bank & money lying around will be rushed to stock market. Doug Kass & his other celebrated BEARS will take notice & WILL SOFTEN their bearish stand just like Adami "softer side" these days.....no more "i am BEARISH but....."talk on CNBC.

NOW that you are all RELAXED about this market future...which is BRIGHT.....lets look @ technical condition of Nasdaq......

On a 10 yr RSI reading in Nasdaq we are @ 72.40 as of Friday's close...highest RSI in Nasdaq in last 10 yr is 91.38.......you still think we are OVERBOUGHT....i think NOT.......

So relax & do your OWN homework & focus on stocks, instead of WORRYING about something which has NOT happened since end of Aug ,2010......

YES..i will trade based on relative RSI levels & switching into slightly attractive RSI...like selling something which is @ 72 & buying something which is @ 64...which MAY be a very good strategy for swing trading......

Did you notice NO EUPHORIA on Fast Money desk ? they all look "less euphoric" than before..another reliable indicator..plus Doug Kass showing up weekly with more "outlandish non-research"

As you can feel that i am of "firm belief" that retail investors are grossly under-invested in this market......that belief is backed up by facts......from 2007 to 2010 $327 Billion were taken out from equity & only $17 Billion has been put back in equity with lot of hesitancy...that adds up to only 5% of outflow......

Nasdaq is on the verge of "major breakout" when we keep climbing towards that famous 5,000 which was achieved back in Jan of 2000......

No .....it wont be in a straight line.....BUT it is important to get the picture right......

This decade will be known as when markets had the "most sustained bull run ever"......

You must be wondering if i am out to lunch...i am afraid i am seeing things which most technicians are afraid to look even......a much HIGHER stock market !!!!

This is the decade of biggest repair of investors psyche.....a "sustained bull market will bring all the funds" back in.......

So have fun with this market, it will be good for your financial health.......gradually equity will grow.....

Here is my stock weighting as of Friday's close :

FFIV.. 35.22%
RVBD 25.86%
MGM. 25.40%
F.......13.52%

My YTD gain is 7.64%.....this despite the fact that, FFIV which is my biggest holding in new year has not worked out yet.....

As this is a 3 day long weekend both in Canada & US....there is no market activity in Toronto or New York.....it is a good idea to RETHINK your $ allocation to EQUITY in a DIVERSIFIED manner.

Good luck with your OWN comfort level with markets & stocks.Remember it is your hard earned money,some are happy with safety with less return, some wants to take higher risk for higher return.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2 comments:

c said...

GOOD morning to Saleem

How are you?
We got snow last night in DC--I was so cold
OK now however

Looks like a see of red to me
I am getting killed on CTL any comments for me-as I will sell today if I can not get a hold opinion! CTL broke the 50 and 200 day average.

the market may close green today...

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

It is bitterly cold in Toronto area.

CTL i do not follow @ all.

Based on RSI it is deeply oversold.

Saleem