IF you follow any pundit be it technician or fundamental genius, they are all proven totally wrong by this market.
What is so ironic that none of the CNBC guest have any clue about this market.....
Most of the technicians were predicting lower & lower numbers till this day....
Market bottomed in March 09 which is almost 2 years ago, but Prechter,Rosenberg,Adami,Carter Worth were all WRONG @ every stage of this massive RUN....
None of the above GENIUS even predicted 1,000 in S&P 500......
The pattern has been for Carter Worth that IF S&P 500 goes to 800 he will predict a top 10 points above & he has been moving 10 points increment after the fact......
Prechter ,Rosenberg,Adami are absolutely "horrible" in their understanding of this market....they are all waiting for RETEST of March 09 LOWS........
WHY so many pundits are WRONG ?
WHY nobody believes this market ?
The answer MAYBE in the recent past history of this market since 1997.......
Since 1997..which is 14 years...has given lot of heartache to many investors,traders,mutual funds,technicians & fundamental analysts.......
It is important to look back @ history to understand,analyze & then make some RATIONALE prediction instead of being STUCK in past behaviour of this market......
In 1997 Nasdaq was @ 1200 area.......
In Jan 2000 Nasdaq hit 5000........
So in 3 short years we had a gain of 3800 points or a gain of 317%.....a better than 100%+ gain back to back to back......
In the same 3 years some stocks like Dell,CSCO,INTC,SUNW,JDSU,CIEN...sported a gain of 1000%...some investors & traders had their car license plate named after DELL,CSCO,INTC,JDSU,CIEN.........
That was all about FRENZIED Y2K upgrading which resulted in DOT COM boom.......
BUT sadly , all BOOM do bring a horrible BUST........most stocks lost 90% of their value...some famous name went bankrupt like NT.....
So from Jan 2000.....to March 09 , Nasdaq went from 5,000 to 1250...a loss of 3,750 points or loss of 75% of its value........that was a long painful 9 years..where financial excess resulted in total meltdown.......
SO,most technicians & Fundamental analysis took "extremely BEARISH tone"
Everybody was selling the rally IF it ever showed up......
SO,we were all conditioned NOT to trust stock market or any of its rally......
Most Prudent investors started to look away from stock market for returns,which took them to buying multiple houses......we all know how that ended & what it did to our financial system.....
SO,after being burned in Stock Market & Housing Market......confidence was shattered......
BUT happily..after every PROLONGED BUST comes another PROLONGED BOOM.......
WE MAY be looking @ the biggest BOOM in Stock Market & Housing for several decade...BUT nobody wants to think that @ this stage.......it is like one day @ a time ?
Because NOBODY wants to be caught in another SLUMP in stocks market,traders,investors are too happy to lock any gains...& WAIT for correction......
This WAIT for correction attitude is affecting Hedge Funds & Institutions also.........
SO , there is lot of selling going on these days.........
BUT IF you are like Doug Kass, you have been waiting for this correction for a long time & MISSING on an OPPORTUNITY of this CENTURY.......
Nasdaq has now moved UP from 1200 area in March 09 to 2809 a gain of 1609 points or a gain of 134% in 23 months or 70% annualized...no small return from any definition......
There is a tremendous RESURGENCE in worldwide economy....the problem worldwide is too much growth & too much inflation......
US & Europe which is the weakest link..also showing serious heartbeat in their economy.....jobless claims in US are @ the lowest level in many years.......
SO, it is important to PREDICT that we are gradually heading to an "economic BOOM worldwide".....
This will gradually result in biggest "bull market in HISTORY"....
Forget all those PUNDITS whose INCOMPETENCE should be OBVIOUS to even a 3 year old..when you are WRONG for 2 years..it is time to pack up & do something else instead of PRETENDING that you have the TALENT to analyze economy or stock market.......
YES..i am "super BULLISH".....
Forget RSI for selling......it is only to be used for swap in better trades
Remember RSI for buying only......
This is a different market..get USED to it....
YES , there will be periodic pullback of 3% to 7%...but when we are heading HIGHER another 100% ..who CARES about 5% pullback as long as you are DIVERSIFIED......
Please do NOT be in the business of market prediction.....most pundits have failed miserably & they are suppose to be "highly trained"..their WAVES, . , lines, %,resistance ain't working for 2 years ????
Here is my portfolio weighting :
MGM 25.42%
FFIV 24.85%
RIMM 24.61%
F..... 13.40%
BAC 11.72%
My Gains for the year is +11.07%
Good luck with your OWN comfort level with your stocks & market.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
7 comments:
SALEEM
YOu offer a lot to think about
I am thinking
Smile
have a great weekend Ford and MGM Go baby go
Great analysis Saleem. I totally agree with your comments.
Personally feel that this year- 2011 will be the best year for the US stock markets as the emerging markets are
1. Bubbled up a lot from stock market perspective
2. Inflation is highest as ever.
3. The central Governments will raise interest rates to control inflation.
4. Social unrest causing uncertainities.
5. US markets have still underperformed and is still an opportune place to invest.
6. Dollar turing around slowly.
7. US seem to be controlling the oil and agri sectors somehow changing the economical dynamics.
All of the above will bring new money flowing to the US stock markets.
We are seeing the signs - markets specially in India fallen from 21000+ to 17000's in a month.
Smile :) and all the very Best to all.
Thanks
Paramjeet
Hi C & Paramjeet,
Thanks for your feedback.
Very rarely,we are presented with an opportunity like this....
After severe dislocation we are finding GROWTH everywhere.
Saleem
Saleem
MGM not so good
Reuters) - MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM - News), which sources said last week plans to publicly list shares in its Macau operations at the end of February, reported a smaller loss in the fourth quarter. The casino operator posted a net loss of $139.2 million, or 29 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $433.9 million, or 98 cents a share, last year.
Net revenue was $1.5 billion, in line with analyst estimates.
MGM owns 10 Las Vegas Strip resorts as well as casino-resorts in Mississippi and Michigan and joint ventures in New Jersey and China's Macau. The company's Macau joint venture, which originally filed early last year for an anticipated Hong Kong initial public offering, is expected to raise about $800 million with the upcoming IPO, according to sources. MGM shares had closed at $15.54 on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. They were down about 2 percent at $15.20 Monday before the markets opened.
Hi C,
MGM result is not a surprise....29 cents loss vs 22 cents loss expectation......
It is all about GUIDANCE which is @ 11 AM CC.....i am HOPING they will guide better than 19 cents loss.
Saleem
Saleem,
Great blog and right to the point of the market trend and "famous analysts." I used to follow them in the past and lost a lot of money.
This morning, I sold the balance of RVBD at 43.5, great profit. I will hold on MGM and FFIV. Bought FCX at 54.7.
Michael
Hi Michael,
Thanks for your feedback.
Good profit in RVBD..great stock $$$
MGM should be OK..once HF accumulate shares & their buddy analysts..will give them a helping hand.
Good luck with your portfolio.
Saleem
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