Thursday, March 31, 2011

Mixed close in Indices ahead of Jobs report......

Nasdaq closed slightly higher while Dow & S&P 500 closed slightly lower...sort of flattish picture.

Internals were mixed.

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included POT,BIDU,SOHU,JDSU,
CIEN,FNSR,STP,SOL,FFIV,
SNDK,EBIX,TSL,CF,AGU.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Gold Down

AH Oil UP

It is all about Jobs report @ 830 AM, expectations are Private sector +200k  & 175K overall job growth.This number has missed most of the time BUT market reaction is based on trend...current trend is UP.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices trading in tight range in anticipation of Jobs report.....

Indices are hovering near flatline.

Friday's jobs report is being awaited.

Weekly option expiry is on Friday also.

Oil UP $1.97 @ record high

Gold UP $13.60

Canadian $ UP 26 tick @ 103.17...new 4 yr high

VIX Down 1.07% @ 17.52

In my portfolio :

Sold BAC

Doubled my position in JKS again @ $26.72

Portfolio is JKS,POT,RVBD,SLW.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.55 following are RED :

JKS,BAC,LULU,APKT,AAPL,NFLX,AKAM,MOS,
IBN,CRM,CREE,TCK,LVS,NVLS,CRUS,ARUN,C,
IGTE,LSCC,JASO,RCI,SINA,SNDA,CSIQ,CTRN.
ICE,NYX,VLO,ISRG,TTM,SNE,GNK....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Indices closed UP .58% to .72%.....NICE !!!!

All Indices closed UP & are getting ready to take out highs of the year.

Internals of the market were strong.

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included JKS,SLW,PLCM,PCLN,TSL,
CMG,AMZN,MOS,MA,V,
CRM,LVS,CIEN,FNSR,
STP,EBIX,IGTE....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .76% to .86%....NICE !!!!!

Indices are all UP......

S&P 500 is only 13.33 points away from taking old high of 1344.07.....

Gold UP $7

Oil Down 19 cents

Canadian $ UP 35 tick @ 102.94..a new 3 yr high.....

VIX Down 4.07% @ 17.42

In my portfolio :

Doubled my position in JKS @ $26.98

Portfolio is BAC,JKS,POT,RVBD,SLW.....

Most stocks are UP

@1.26 following are RED :

RVBD,APKT,AAPL,MU,SOHU,LEN,
LSCC,SNDK,ARUN,NVDA,CRUS,
ASIA,SINA,SNDA,BRCS,ICE,JRCC,
GAME,FSLR,GNK,VAR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Indices closed UP .67% to .96%......NICE !!!!!

Indices closed UP after taking a break yesterday.
Internals of the market were strong.

Strong stocks which were UP 2% or more included RVBD,LULU,
SOL,PLCM,LTXC,CMG,AMZN,SOHU,M,CREE,CIEN,STP,
EBIX,IGTE......

NOW..for the ultimate question of the day ?
Where are we headed in this market ?

Before i answer that let us look @  RSI for the indices :
Nasdaq 55.68
S&P 500 56.32
Dow 59.23

Definitely RSI is trending higher & have lot of room to run. RSI also are higher than recent level, which as a trend is very healthy.

All the indices are above 50 DMA.....another healthy technical signal.

S&P 500 closed @ 1319.44 which is only 24.63 points below high of 1344.07.....or it needs to go higher by only 1.87% to be @ new high......

My read is that we could easily go above 1344.07 & higher.......


As this end of the month & end of the Q, next two days could be very powerful on the bullish side.Based on all the technicals & fundamental picture of this bull market, it will be prudent to be "overweight" right @ open tomorrow.
I am feeling "super bullish"...this Taurus gets it right most of the time.

AH ER TIBX was a beat but guiding EPS touch below consensus, stock Down 5.6%

AH Futures UP
AH Asian markets UP
AH Oil Down 
AH Gold & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices back in UPTREND mode....NICE !!!!

Contrary to CNBC experts we are NOT going to 1245 in S&P 500.....Adami rules AGAIN & AGAIN in being 100% WRONG in 3rd year of his 1000 predictions.....a real winner we got in Adami analysis .....

S&P 500 trading @ 1315......

Today as expected we are getting BROAD BASED participation in all sectors..a good thing.....

Gold Down $3.60

Oil UP 18 cents

Canadian $ UP 29 tick @ 102.51

VIX Down 3.5% @ 18.76

Portfolio is BAC,JKS,POT,RVBD,SLW...

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.27 following are RED :

BAC,AAPL,CRUS,ARUN,NVDA, NFLX,CRM,
CCJ,MA,V,LEN,SU,ECA,GNK.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 28, 2011

Indices closed down from .19% to .45%....

Indices pulled back as expected after going UP for several days. This was a normal healthy pullback of less than .5%. We should be able to move UP from here again. I am expecting a positive close. Internals of the market were negative. In my portfolio : Sold TCK Bought SLW @ $42.91 Portfolio is BAC,JKS,POT,RVBD,SLW...... Stocks which were UP 3% or more included JKS,LULU,SOL,LDK, NFLX,JASO,STP,ARUN,NVDA,TZOO.... Solar stocks fundamental has improved from Nuclear issues & victory of green party in Germany over the weekend. AH Futures Down AH Asian Markets Down AH Gold & Oil Down BLOG does NOT give buy or sell. Saleem

Indices UP .15% to .27%.....NICE !!!!

Indices are trying to stay in green. There is some selling pressure near S&P 500 recent highs. Gold Down $4.90 Oil Down 81 cents Canadian $ UP 52 tick @ 102.41 VIX UP 2.85% @ 18.42 ? In my portfolio : Sold LULU Bought JKS @ $25.75 Bought POT @ $58.09 Portfolio is BAC,JKS,POT,RVBD,TCK..... Most stocks are UP @ 1.08 following are RED : RVBD,TCK,SLW,FFIV,CF,RIMM, CMG, AKAM, MOS,CCJ,CNQ,SU, LVS,AMCC, JDSU,FNSR, CIEN, FUQI,C,EBIX,IGTE, FMCN, IAG, ECA,SNDA,ICE, AEM, VLO, SNE, FWLT. BLOG does NOT give buy or sell. Saleem...... PS....Google format is not working.Thus my normal format is all mixed up, tried 12 times to edit & change but no luck????

Friday, March 25, 2011

Sold RIMM.....

After evaluating all the analysts report on RIMM whole day , i decided to sell my entire position near close.........

RIMM guidance was a "major disappointment"......guidance for Q1 reflected poor execution despite all the talk i heard in CC......

It was time to move on for me......All companies have one purpose only "deliver what you promise" otherwise "credibility is shot with wall street & investor".......

Bought LULU @ $78.68.....

Portfolio is BAC,LULU,RVBD,TCK.......

Portfolio weighting as of close :

RVBD 38.26%

LULU 31.61%

TCK...16.19%

BAC...13.94%

All indices closed above 50 DMA, which is healthy indication for the market.

RSI for indices @ close are listed :

Nasdaq 53.84

S&P 500 54.58

Dow 57.37

Dow has gone UP six days in a row, which may need digestion...

Next post Monday around 1 PM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices above 50 DMA.....NICE !!!!

Technically market is very healthy.

All indices above 50 DMA......

Gold Down $11.66

Oil Down 66 cents

Canadian $ Down 52 tick @ 101.89...Canadian Govt is expected to fall on a no confidence vote today..new elections to be held in MAY ...in about 6 weeks

VIX Down 1.83% @ 17.67

Portfolio is BAC,RIMM,RVBD,TCK.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.24 following are RED :

RIMM,TCK,BAC,GOOG,PLCM,CRM,JKS,LDK,
GS,MA,V,CNQ,IAG,CSIQ,AEM,FUQI,FSLR,
SPWRA,JDSU,HSOL,NVDA,EBIX.....

About RIMM..after trading 40 million shares by 130 PM..... which is 4 times normal volume,
HF could not push it below 200 DMA.....which is a very encouraging sign.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 24, 2011

All Indices closed .70% to 1.40% higher....NICE !!!!

Indices closed green......

S&P 500 closed well above 50 DMA...

Nasdaq is only 6.44 points away from 50 DMA.......

Internals were strong....

VIX closed Down 6.1% @ 18.00

AH ER RIMM was a miss on guidance, stock down 10.48%

AH ER ORCL was a beat, stock UP 4.04%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold Down

RIMM...couple of key points for RIMM

RIMM traded 10.2 million shares AH..average volume is 9.8 million shares...

RIMM AH closed @ $57.37...200 DMA is $56.45.....IF we take their $7.50 EPS projection for this year...based on AH last trade, RIMM current PE is 7.65.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

RIMM conference call impression.....

RIMM conference call gave a clear impression of the following :

-Q1 shortfall is due to many expenses associated with introduction & preparation of product / software implementation.

-RIMM is extremely confident of Fiscal 2012 which ends in Feb 2012....their projection of $7.50 for next 4 Q looks like ATTAINABLE.

-RIMM does not see any issues in terms of demand or execution.

The way i can interpret...here is how i see next 4Q EPS :

Q1 (current ends in MAY).... $1.51

Q2.........................................$1.80

Q3.........................................$2.00

Q4 ends in Feb 2012............$2.19

Total EPS projected..............$7.50

I am keeping all RIMM shares !!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

RIMM guidance lower than consensus.....

RIMM is guiding Q1 Sales $5.40 Billion vs expectations of $5.64 Billion...... EPS of $1.51 vs expectations of $1.65.....

Stock Down $6.04 or <9.42%> as predicted by options.....

RIMM is attributing lower Sales & EPS Guidance for Q1.... to shift in product mix / expenses with R&D plus increase in Sales / Marketing Expense......plus Japanese disruption.....

For full year of 2012 ending Feb 2012......forecasting EPS of $7.50 fully diluted..which is much higher than current consensus of $6.81......

Currently holding all RIMM shares.....will listen to CC.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 above 50 DMA...NICE !!!!

All indices are in green with a move UP of .60% to 1.11%...

S&P 500 moved above 50 DMA......

Nasdaq only 15 points below 50 DMA.....

Gold UP $4.50

Oil UP 14 cents

Canadian $ UP 42 tick @ 102.46

VIX Down 4.69% @ 18.27

Portfolio is BAC,RIMM,RVBD,TCK......

Most stocks are UP....

@ 1.14 following are RED :

BAC,POT,FFIV,JKS,CF,APKT,EBIX,
GS,SLW,MOS,CCJ,CNQ,SU,JASO,
ASIA,ECA,SNDA,SPWRA.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Indices closed green....NICE !!!!

Indices closed green....

Dow closed well above 50 DMA....

S&P 500 only 6.78 points away from 50 DMA...Nasdaq only 44.17 points away from 50 DMA...

Internals of the market were positive...

AH ER MU was a beat, stock UP 3.77%

AH ER RHT was a beat, stock UP 10.58%

Tomorrow AH RIMM reports, which is "universally hated" & has been left for dead......

I am expecting RIMM to offer UPBEAT GUIDANCE to the "surprise of many Hedge Funds & millions of shorts".....IF that happens....then expect the "biggest short squeeze" of this earning season.......Options are pricing a move of 9% + or -...i am betting that it is on the + side....

Let us look @ raw numbers of RIMM for ER AH :

Sales for Q4 which ends in Feb 2011, expectations are $5.63 Billion ..increase of 38.10% YOY

EPS for Q4 expectations are $1.75 per share...increase of 37.80% YOY

IF you listen to all the "bears" you would think RIMM is growing like CSCO in single digits ???

Expectations for Q1 Sales are $5.64 Billion..increase of 33.10%

Expectations for Q1 EPS $1.65..increase of 19.57%

RIMM Sales for FY ending in Feb 2011 expected to be $19.97 Billion with EPS of $6.33

RIMM Sales for FY ending in Feb 2012 expected to be $23.98 Billion with EPS of $6.77....

SO.... in AH CC RIMM should be able to guide better than expectations for Q1 of this year.....

Based on Today's close of $62.12...RIMM is trading @ current PE of 9.18......which is way low for a company which "finally" may be getting its act together........

RIMM 50 DMA is $63.91 & its current RSI is 44.68........

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow above 50 DMA.....Nice !!!

Dow & Nasdaq are green while S&P 500 is down 1 point.

Dow just moved above 50 DMA...very good technical picture for market......

Gold UP $11.50

Oil UP $1.04

Canadian $ UP 4 tick @ 102.03...despite Govt falling & new election in the cards.

Portfolio is BAC,RIMM,RVBD,TCK......

TCK lowered 2011 guidance based on production / labor issues.....

BAC was denied increase in dividend by Fed.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.21 following are RED :

BAC,TCK,AAPL,ARUN,PLCM,GS,CCJ,
M,CREE,CNQ,SU,AMCC,SNDK,NVLS,
FUQI,FMCN,ECA,SNDA,IGT,NTES,
FSLR,ISRG,SNE,GNK,FWLT.....

AH MU reports, expecting a beat.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Indices closed with small loss......

All Indices closed lower.

Dow is below 50 DMA.

Internals of the market were negative.

Stocks which closed green included RIMM,BIDU,NFLX,GS,GOOG,
AAPL,SLW,AKAM,PLCM,SOHU,CCJ,MCP,TZOO......

AH ER JBL was a beat & guide UP. Stock UP 10.20%

AH ADBE guiding lower due to Japan uncertainty. Stock Down .46%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Gold Down

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down .15% to .35%.......

Indices are on hold till next buying kicks in......

Dow is below 50 DMA.....

Oil UP $1.17

Gold UP $4.20

Canadian $ Down 5 tick @ 102.13

VIX Down 2.67% @ 20.06

In my portfolio :

Added 35% BAC @ $13.97

Portfolio is BAC,RIMM,RVBD,TCK.....

Portfolio weighting as of now is BAC 11.44%, TCK 12.62%, RVBD 29.25%, RIMM 46.69%

Most stocks are Down...

@ 1.14 following are green :

BIDU,AAPL,GOOG,LULU,LDK,PLCM,
NFLX,GS,AKAM,CCJ,FMCN,RCI,SINA,
CTRN,CSIQ,ICE,JRCC,NTES,AEM,NYX,
GAME,GNK....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 21, 2011

Dow closes above 50 DMA ...NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP 1.50% to 1.83%....

Dow closed above 50 DMA....S&P 500 is only 5 points away from 50 DMA.....

Strong stocks which closed UP 2% or more included RVBD,RIMM,
MU,POT,BIDU,PLCM,AAPL,GOOG,CRM,SLW,MOS,CCJ,SOHU,
MA,CNQ,LVS,JDSU,CIEN,NVLS,EBIX,CRUS,ARUN,IGTE,JASO,
FNSR,JKS,TSL......

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH OIL & Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP 1.50% to 1.84%...NICE !!!!

Indices are bouncing back from oversold conditions as Libya is under attack & Japan nuclear crisis is being viewed as "under control".......

Dow has move ABOVE 50 DMA......while S&P 500 is about 5 points away & Nasdaq about 48 points away from 50 DMA......

Gold UP $17.60

Oil UP $1.18

Canadian $ UP 75 tick @ 102.31

VIX Down 15.75% @ 20.59

Most stocks are UP...

In my portfolio :

Added 150% BAC @ $14.19

Portfolio is BAC,RIMM,RVBD,TCK.......

@ 1.10 following are RED :

TCK,BAC,C,CF,FFIV,LTXC,IBN,
FUQI,JRCC,NYX,GAME....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, March 18, 2011

Why Markets are so WEAK ?

It seems that markets have lost its momentum big time ?

All indices are still below 50 DMA.....

RSI numbers @ close are :

Nasdaq 37.41

S&P 500 42.53

Dow 43.93

SO...everybody feels negative about markets prospects going forward ?

IS that a fair statement considering where we have been & what happened in last 4 weeks ?

IF we look @ challenges / horror we faced in Japan, then we MAY not view everything in the same light......

Japan gave us TRIPLE tragedy of Earthquake of 9.0 magnitude which is 5th strongest in recorded history & biggest in Japan. Then we had Tsunami followed by Nuclear scare...........

IF you consider Japan which used to be #2 economic power now #3 behind China...economic implications are enormous......

Technology is being impacted severely by Japan as many tech productions are in Japan which have been affected by this TRIPLE tragedy......

Nasdaq is clearly signalling that Japan will IMPACT tech Sales & Earnings materially.Once this has been discounted then we will move higher in Nasdaq.....

IF we look @ close today in Dow & S&P 500 we are looking better "technically" which should cheer all of us.......

Dow & S&P 500 are "withing striking distance of going above 50 DMA "...Dow is only 156.82 points away...S&P 500 is only 23.63 points away......

This has been TOUGH 4 weeks in markets, everybody has suffered serious loss in equity BUT we need to REFOCUS & REPOSITION in non-tech areas in short term......

There are MANY stocks which are ABOVE 50 DMA as of close, which is remarkable for this market. Here is the list of those stocks with their closing RSI:

PCLN 46.65
CMG 47.05
ARUN 56.32
EBIX 59.60
BIDU 50.37
SINA 52.05
NTES 48.66
TZOO 56.29
NFLX 49.99

Ironically they all fall in "tech sectors" which is the WEAKEST.

SO...look @ your portfolio & try to DIVERSIFY better.

Hopefully, we MAY have "extremely positive " news out of Japan about those nuclear reactors by Monday open.

Good luck with your OWN homework.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .40% to .96% on Option Expiry day...NICE !!!!

Indices are green on Option Expiry day.

Nasdaq is lagging again & "cloud sector" is taking on the chin AGAIN......looks like a PE contraction.

Gold UP $16.40

Oil UP 7 cents

Canadian $ UP 14 tick @ 101.63

VIX Down 9.14% @ 23.96

In my portfolio :

Sold MU

Sold BIDU

Sold POT

Bought TCK @ $54.50

Portfolio is BAC,RIMM,RVBD,TCK......

Most stocks are UP

@ 12.16 following are RED :

RVBD,FFIV,APKT,CRM,ARUN,LDK,JKS,SOL,TSL,
AAPL,BIDU,CF,LULU,MU,PLCM,PCLN,CMG,NFLX,
AKAM,SOHU,MA,SU,LVS,JDSU,CIEN,FNSR,HSOL,STP,
JASO,NVLS,CRUS,NVDA,ASIA,SINA,CTRN,FSLR,CSIQ,
SPWRA,GNK,ISRG....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Indices closed UP .73% to 1.39%...NICE !!!!!

Indices staged a nice rebound today after relentless selling for two days.

Nasdaq is lagging as there is concern for supply disruption from Japan. Japan also accounts for 10%+ sales for many tech companies.

Internals of the market were positive....

Stocks that were UP 2% or more included BAC,CREE,TCK,SU,CNQ,
STP,SNDK,MGM......

AH ER NKE was weak, stock Down 5.34%

AH ER LDK was beat but stock Down 2.88%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP 1.30% to 1.44%....NICE !!!!

After all the "fear mongering" yesterday, indices are UP 1.30%+...

Friday is Option Expiry which will be interesting to watch.

Oil UP $2.86

Gold UP $5.90

Canadian $ UP 55 tick @ 101.58

VIX Down 11.09% @ 26.14

Portfolio is BIDU,BAC,MU,POT,RIMM,RVBD...

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.12 following are RED :

CCJ,AMZN,CRM,SOHU,JDSU,FNSR,CIEN,
AMCC,HSOL,FUQI,EBIX,NVTL,ASIA,FMCN,
SINA,SNDA,CTRN,LULU,NYX,GNK.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Indices closed Down 1.89% to 2.04%....

All Indices breached their low from yesterday. Sharp weakness in indices can be attributed to "hysteria" about imminent worsening of Japanese nuclear situation. EU & US officials speculated more than what was warranted. Japanese officials do not waste too much time before media which creates a news vacuum leading to speculative comments we heard today.

News from Japan tonight is highly encouraging as their seven military helicopters is able to drop seawater into reactor without any problem. They are also finishing new power line to reactors to restore cooling systems & ease the crisis.

Back to markets....

@ the close we have the following stat after 1 month of correction. This included Egypt, Libya & now Japan crisis :

Dow Down 6.75%

S&P 500 Down 7.07%

Nasdaq Down 8.34%

Today's selling was a sign of "capitulation" as per following internals :

Down volume led by 10.19 to 1 in NYSE & 7.24 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.33 to 1 in NYSE & 2.61 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk low were in the lead 39 in NYSE & 63 in Nasdaq

About those famous RSI @ close :

S&P 500 33.50

Dow 32.46

Nasdaq 32.28

All of the above stat is a mark of "extremely oversold" conditions......

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices breaching yesterday's low ?

Indices are down & below yesterday's low.

Indices down from 2.32% to 2.43%, thanks to EU update on damage to Japanese Nuclear reactor. I don't know about you but this damage was to be "expected" considering 6 days of fire & explosion.

I commend Japanese engineers & workers who are risking their life to save as much as possible. After 6 days we do NOT have a meltdown or major radiation leak. I expect serious progress in nuclear story IF our prayers & luck hold out.

Under these circumstances & sell the panic mentality, RSI are @ washed out levels which should prompt "smart money" to buy ahead of this deeply discounted issues.

We all survived 3 mile & Chernoble & we will get ahead of current challenge.Japanese of all nations have the expertise,willingness to deal with this TRIPLE dose of calamities.

Here is the RSI read :

Nasdaq 31.26

Dow 31.33

S&P 500 32.22

IF this is not a "screaming buy", i do not know what is. There is a major opportunity here.

Gold UP $11.00

Oil UP 94 cents

Canadian $ Down 92 tick @ 100.59

VIX UP 20.39% @ 29.28

In my portfolio :

Bought BAC @ $13.96

Portfolio is BAC,BIDU,MU,POT,RIMM,RVBD......

Most stocks are Down......

@ 2.15 following are green :

PLCM,MA,CIEN,FNSR,ASIA,ECA,ICE,JRCC...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Indices closed Down 1.12% to 1.25%......

Indices staged a predictable recovery right after opening bell. Dow erased almost 300 point loss into a loss of 138 points. US markets behaved better than any market in the world.

Fed statement reinforced "recovery in US economy on firmer footing "

Internals of the market were decidedly negative by almost 3 to 1.

Strong stocks included POT,NFLX,TCK,PLCM,FFIV,F,
JASO,STP,HSOL,SOL,TSL,JKS,FSLR,EBIX,IGTE,FCX.

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian markets Mixed

AH Gold & Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down 1.47% to 1.49%......

Markets in US is faring much better than Asian markets.US is immune to Japan current crisis and MAY benefit economically with more EXPORTS.

Dow was Down almost 300 points @ low of the day @ 11696.25, currently down 177 points.

RSI went to almost "fire sale" level today.When i checked RSI they were :

Dow 35.94

S&P 500 35.55

Nasdaq 33.88

These reading were not the lowest level today..low must be lower than these. As i am a firm believer in RSI signal.....it was / IS a screaming buy. CNBC will never monitor these signal.They thrive in creating PANIC selling which boost their rating / ad revenue.

Oil Down $2.48

Gold Down $27.20

Canadian $ Down 78 tick @ 101.89

VIX UP 11.45% @ 23.55

In my portfolio :

Bought MU @ $10.00

Bought BIDU @ $118.99

Bought POT @ $53.48

Portfolio is BIDU,MU,POT,RIMM,RVBD.......

Most stocks are Down

@ 12.38 following are green :

MU,POT,RVBD,SOL,JKS,TSL,STP,HSOL,
JASO,PLCM,CMG,NFLX,CRM,AKAM,MOS,
F,FFIV,LEN,EBIX,ECA,CSIQ,CTRN,SPWRA,
FSLR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Bought BIDU & MU @ Open...

Bought BIDU @ $ 118.99

Bought MU @ $10.00

Portfolio is BIDU,MU,RIMM,RVBD....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets today ???

Indices are under severe selling pressure with futures down as follows :

Dow <2.10%>

S&P 500 <2.53%>

Nasdaq <2.66%>

Oil Down $3.85

Gold Down $20.30

Silver Down $1.27

Nikkei closed Down 10.55%...@ low it was Down 14%

Hang Seng Down 2.86%..@ low was Down 4.68% or 1093 points....

Based on the trading pattern in Asia, we may follow a similar pattern of Hang Seng.

Dow MAY go down 350 points or so but MAY show some recovery by close.Buyers SHOULD step in right from OPEN which MAY provide support.

Buying today or NOT selling today
is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.

Good luck on your OWN strategy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 14, 2011

Indices erased some losses @ close.....

Indices are fighting Japanese news flow which is filled with negative consequences from health & economic point of view.

Internals were negative.

AH Nikkei is Down 6.45% @ the end of morning session.

AH other Asian markets are Down another 2%+

AH CCME issued a statement announcing resignation of its CFO & Auditors. Auditors also issued statement stating that prior earnings & sales needs to be revised downwards.Also calling for an "independent Audit committee"...CCME is among few Chinese companies facing a similar "restatement".CCME has been halted since Friday AM.....

AH Futures Down Sharply..Dow <150>,S&P 500 <18>, Nasdaq <26>...looks like recent support MAY not hold......BUT how we close is MORE critical.

AH Oil & Gold Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down 1% to 1.23% on Japanese situation....

Japanese economy is centre stage with Earthquake,Tsunami & Nuclear crisis. Japan was already struggling with anaemic growth before all this.

There is a fear that Japan will slip into recession again.....

All Indices went below Friday's low which is a good thing "technically speaking" as selling intensified.As long as we close above previous low, we may have a chance of moving UP.

Here is the 50 DMA to keep an eye on :

S&P 500 1302.37

Dow 12004.99

Nasdaq 2746.37

IF we close above any of these numbers ...then we have discounted CURRENT news......

Gold UP $1.70

Oil Down 92 cents

Canadian $ Down 26 tick @ 102.55

VIX UP 11.45% @ 22.38

Portfolio is RIMM & RVBD

Most stocks are Down

Nuclear related stocks are taking a "huge hit" like CCJ,URA based on reaction to reactor 1,2 & 3 updates.Many governments are "delaying" nuclear focus to understand & amend their plans.

@1.36 following are green :

AAPL,PLCM,CMG,CREE,NVDA,TSL,JKS,SOL
HSOL,LDK,JDSU,FNSR,JASO,STP,CRUS,DRYS,
MU,ECA,SINA,LULU,NYX,VLO,SPWRA,FSLR.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, March 11, 2011

Is the correction over ?

Market just went through a "swift rollover" which pierced 50 DMA in all indices.

Here is the summary of Market TAPE in two popular indices :

S&P 500

High 1344.07
Low 1291.99
Close 1304.28
50 DMA 1301.75

@ lowest point today S&P 500 lost 52.08 points or 3.87%

Nasdaq

High 2840.51
Low 2689.41
Close 2715.61
50 DMA 2745.92

@ lowest point today Nasdaq lost 151.10 points or 5.32%

Dow & S&P 500 closed above 50 DMA, while Nasdaq is still below.....which is quite healthy that two index climbed above 50 DMA....

News of today was quite disturbing from Japan, but market was looking @ the bright side of dropping Oil prices and upcoming rebuilding effort......which boosted many mining stocks also.

IF we look @ the correction in S&P 500 & Nasdaq, they attained norm of recent pullbacks as analyzed above.....which is saying that 3.87% / 5.32% pullback is what we got last time also +- few points.....

In my analysis of TAPE, how we close is always critical. Today's close was quite encouraging based on technical condition & news flow. It looks like that downside is contained for now.

As you may have observed that those stocks @ higher RSI last night as a group fared much better today in turnaround.

So the moral of the story is, that RSI do matter if you are looking @ critical decision making scenario.

Selling weaker stocks are always a no-brainer.....

Here is a list of stocks which are looking stronger :

BIDU,RVBD,RIMM,PLCM,AMZN,AAPL,
NFLX,SLW,MOS,SOHU,MA,V,TCK,CREE,
SU,ARUN,EBIX,IGTE,CIEN,FCX,MU,LULU.

Good luck with next week trading.

Next post Monday around 1 PM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

.12% to .31% technical bounce in indices...

Indices are having a "weak" technical bounce, UP .31% max.

Ironically, Japanese Tsunami is giving boost to commodities stock .There is hope
for major "rebuilding effort in Japan".....

All Indices are below 50 DMA......

Close is very "critical" to determine the health of this market.

Gold UP $7.10

Oil Down $1.70

Canadian $ UP 19 tick @ 102.71

VIX Down 5.44% @ 20.69

Portfolio is RIMM & RVBD....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.20 following are RED :

NVDA,SOL,JKS,LTXC,PCLN,GOOG,AKAM,
LEN,LVS,JDSU,FNSR,HSOL,STP,FUQI,
NVLS,CRUS,CCME,JASO,ASIA,FMCN,
CSIQ,ICE,JRCC,NTES,NYX,VAR,SNE,TTM,
SPWRA,TSL.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Indices closed Down 1.84% to 1.89% in heavy volume...

Indices were battered on Chinese news of trade deficit, which put fear about domestic Chinese economy IF it is slowing down.

All indices closed below 50 DMA in heavy volume.

Internals of the market were as follows :

Down volume led by 9.01 to 1 in NYSE & 5.87 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 5.33 to 1 in NYSE & 6.09 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk low were in the lead in both NYSE & Nasdaq...

This is the first break of 50 DMA in all indices since Sep on a closing basis....

RSI in S&P 500 is 43.46 & in Nasdaq 41.13.......


RSI as of close in many stocks are :

CREE 28.00
AKAM 23.05
NFLX 43.21
GOOG 31.08
AMZN 34.72
AAPL 46.71
RVBD 51.71
RIMM 41.41
BAC 49.82
GS 42.42
LVS 28.67
PLCM 51.46
CIEN 39.12
LTXC 40.86
MU 38.03

Anything 40+ is worth looking @.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down 1.80%...only Nasdaq below 50 DMA ...

Dow & S&P 500 are above 50 DMA after dipping below......

Nasdaq is below 50 DMA which is @ 2745.30, Nasdaq currently @ 2717.58...

Gold Down $17.40

Oil Down $2.80

Canadian $ Down 65 tick @ 102.57

VIX UP 3.41% @ 20.91

In my portfolio :

Sold NVDA

Portfolio is RIMM & RVBD

Most stocks are Down

@ 1.26 following stocks are green :

SOL,CMG,NFLX,BIDU,CREE,FFIV,JDSU,
FUQI,CRUS,SINA,SNDA,NTES,GMCR....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Indices closed Down .01% to .51%.....

On the 2nd anniversary of market lowest point, indices closed slightly down.Nasdaq was the weakest with .51% loss......

Nasdaq weakness is worrisome as internals of Nasdaq were almost 2 to 1 on the downside. SMH broke below 50 DMA of 34.59 closing @ 34.38.This is the first break of 50 DMA since September by this widely followed semiconductor index.

There is a "real concern" of inventory build up in Semis & Fibre-Optics area. Some analyst are looking for 2 Q for Fibre-Optics inventory to come in-line. MRVL warned about their inventory few days back.

As i follow TAPE closely, i do not like the TAPE in most semis & chip equipment maker.They all were showing "profound weakness" lately.

It will be PRUDENT to stay "underweight" in exposure to the market.

I am also noting that mining stocks are also showing weakness.

SO...many sectors are showing weakness & IF they fall below 50 DMA .......then next support MAY be near 200 DMA....

Stock picking is "extremely CRITICAL" @ this juncture.......there is no science to it just watch your stock TAPE action closely.....

The way i see it, try to LOCK gains & try to trade more FREQUENTLY.

We may get CATALYST for a rally, but it will be wise to sell the rally from hereon.......

Buy the WEAKNESS & sell the rally......is what i see until next earning season......

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Gold Down

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow Green on Bull market's 2nd yr anniversary ......NICE !!!!

Today is 2nd yr anniversary of this bull run. Indices are in digestive phase in this bull market, waiting for catalyst. No need to "overthink" this TAPE.

A TAPE like today is a good day to REPOSITION / REBALANCE.

Gold UP $1.30

Oil Down 62 cents

Canadian $ UP 20 tick @ 103.17.... a 39 month high

VIX UP 1.11% @ 20.04

Portfolio is NVDA,RIMM,RVBD

Most stocks are Down

@ 1.10 following stocks are green :

CMG,AMZN,AKAM,GS,SOHU,MA,M,
LEN,MGM,JASO,STP,HSOL,EBIX,
NVTL,CCME,JKS,FMCN,RCI,SINA,
IAG,ECA,CTRN,LULU,NTES,VLO,
SPWRA,TTM....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Indices closed UP .73% to 1.03%...NICE !!!!

Just when Guy Adami was making another prediction of S&P 500 going "way below"..we are pretty close to 3 yr high...how ironic that for 2 years straight he has been wrong about market direction...but talks like a "know it all"...

Indices closed UP around 1%....

Internals of the market were strong.

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included RVBD,GS,IBN,SOHU,CCJ,
LEN,BAC,FFIV,F,C,JASO,BZH,SINA.....

AH ER FNSR guiding way lower than consensus, stock Down 35.85%

AH CIEN Down 6.51%

AH JDSU Down 13.83%

AH ER STP was a beat & guiding higher, stock UP 3.67%

AH SOL announcing a "very complicated derivative based convertible" of $200 million with over allotment. Stock Down 4.97%

AH TXN updating guidance in-line, stock Down .61%

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian markets UP

AH Oil Down

AH Gold & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .97% to 1.19%...NICE !!!!

Indices are back on track after panic selling by "genius on Wall Street" yesterday.....

Indices are UP 1% +-

Gold Down $5.30

Oil Down 65 cents

Canadian $ UP 18 tick @ 102.94..hitting 3 yr high

VIX Down 6.29% @ 19.36

Portfolio is NVDA,RIMM,RVBD

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.11 following stocks are RED :

NVDA,JKS,SOL,NFLX,PCLN,CMG,AMZN,
SLW,MOS,POT,AGU,V,CNQ,SU,LVS,CIEN,
STP,FUQI,ARUN,,ARMH,GG,IAG,ECA,
ICE,AEM,VLO,ABX,SPWRA....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 7, 2011

Indices closed Down from .66% to 1.40%....

So.... Oil was shooting up to $107, Gold was in record high territory Up almost $20 near high. As happens so often, traders / hedge funds hit the panic button. As we go towards close in these situations, smart money is always waiting to buy.

We pared loss substantially & all indices closed above 50 DMA.....

S&P 500 proved its resilience by not breaching even 1300, low was 1303.99 @ the height of panic selling. Dow also was the healthiest of all. Nasdaq did breach its 50 DMA but roared back to close above.

I view today's TAPE same way as i have viewed market TAPE since low in August. There is tremendous buying power waiting to get in when there is panic selling.

Here is the internals @ close :

Down volume led by 4.17 to 1 in NYSE & 5.56 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.27 to 1 in NYSE & 3.33 to 1 in Nasdaq...these are NOT extreme numbers which bodes well for future.....

New 52 wk high were in the lead, 142 in NYSE & 100 in Nasdaq.

YES..VIX jumped 8.39% @ 20.66

OH..about those RSI @ close, they were :

Nasdaq 47.23

S&P 500 49.20

Dow 49.38

All are in buy zone.....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil, Gold, Silver Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down .91% to 1.95%....

Indices are down triggered by Oil,Gold & CIEN weak forecast.

Although Oil & Gold have come off their highs , still indices are not reacting YET ????

I guess profit taking / panic selling has taken hold.

Oil UP 76 cents

Gold UP $3.70

Canadian $ Down 3 tick @ 102.70

VIX UP 12.07% @ 21.36

Portfolio is NVDA,RIMM,RVBD

Everything on my screen is Down......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

My monitor went dead , so had to resolve computer issues. Ended up buying a new monitor & new Video card..both better than before...i guess 6 years was enough for my LCD monitor....thus post was delayed & not responded to any comments yet. Had to make 3 trips to my Staples which is 28 miles round trip......

Saleem

Friday, March 4, 2011

How is market reacting to Oil @ $104.42 ???

So... here we are, Oil closed @ $104.42 on Friday.......

S&P 500 closed @ 1321.15 down .74%

IF we take the 30 month high of S&P 500 which was 1344.07, we are Down 22.92 points or 1.71%.....

IF you ask skeptics/pundits/Guru's of CNBC....they will not be able to justify S&P 500 being down just 1.71% from its high when Oil is @ record high.....they were all set for 1175 when oil was below $100????

Many technicians were saying that 1320 in S&P 500 is a "major resistance"..guess what..we closed today above that feared number, on the day of record price for oil???

You may ask....what is keeping this market so high ?

The simple answer could be, that Libyan situation will be resolved one way or the other & Oil price PREMIUM will come down........

Wall Street is predicting that worldwide economy will be fine in the long run.......

BUT..there is a problem with stocks behaviour in certain sectors.....look @ Autos,Banks,Solar which are lagging big time......

It is critical that traders / investors recognize "lack of participation" quickly......

It is interesting how RSI have aligned in all indices as listed below :

Dow 53.53

Nasdaq 53.63

S&P 500 53.85

It used to be that Dow was flirting with highest reading while other indices were lagging, especially Nasdaq......NOT anymore....

RSI is telling me that indices are all set to take out old highs in a hurry.....

Market TAPE is also telling me that Technology will be the-best sector for the upcoming run...

It is important to note the shift in market preference, certain sectors are out of favour for now.

It is also important to buy & keep stocks with a balance of Fundamental & technical knowledge. Market is NOT lifting all boats & traders / investors are getting sloppy.TAPE is telling you to PRUNE many stocks, If they come back in favour then you can get on board.

Here is weighting of my portfolio as of close today:

RIMM 49.91%

RVBD 35.16%

NVDA 14.93%

My portfolio is UP 1.33%...under performance is attributable to FFIV, which has departed from my portfolio.

Good luck with your weekend strategy session.

Next post Monday around 1PM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down .86% to 1.33% due to Oil near $104....

Indices are trying to digest new reality of Oil near $104.

Economic news continues to be better than expected.

Indices are giving up some gains NOT all.

Oil UP $2.12

Gold UP $12.30

Canadian $ UP 8 tick @ 102.88 near 3 yr high

In my portfolio :

Sold F

Added 120% NVDA @ $20.86

Added 30% RIMM @ $66.68

Portfolio is RIMM 50.19%, RVBD 34.84%,NVDA 14.97% as of 30 mts ago......

Most stocks are down....

@1.19 following are green :

RVBD,TSL,CMG,NFLX,BIDU,SLW,SOHU,CCJ,
TCK,CNQ,SU,JDSU,FNSR,FUQI,LSCC,ARUN,
EBIX,PCLN,GG,SINA,SNDA,LULU,NTES,AEM,
ABX,FSLR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Indices closed UP 1.59% to 1.84%...NICE !!!!

Indices had a broad based rally today despite non-guru's of CNBC were calling for 1175...S&P 500 closed @ 1330.97...many technicians were sure that 1320 was the "mother of all resistance"

Internals were as follows :

UP volume led by 5.22 to 1 in NYSE & 6.88 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 4.38 to 1 in NYSE & 3.33 to 1 in Nasdaq

New highs were 217 in NYSE & 149 in Nasdaq.....

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included RIMM,RVBD,APKT,
PCLN,PLCM,IBN,BAC,MGM,CIEN,FNSR,LSCC,CRUS,ARUN,EBIX.......

Friday @ 830 AM, it is all about Jobs report ..consensus is Job growth of 185,000
there is a very good chance of EXCEEDING that number.......

AH ER SLW was a beat & start of dividend, stock UP .96%

AH MRVL guiding lower, stock Down 6.37%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

Here are stocks which are flashing BUY signal.Please ensure your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE & make your OWN decision :

RIMM,RVBD,SNDA,TUES,ACI,BX,CVS,FXI,AMAT,
APKT,CIEN,FMCN,NTES,PLCM,GNK,WEN,CRUS,
HLIT,MU...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP 1.49% to 1.85%...NICE !!!!

Indices are giving a clear message to shorts/panic traders/Adami/Kass that they have no clue about this market......

"It is all about worldwide economy STUPID".....this famous quote sums it up PERFECT...

Indices UP another 1.5%++++

Gold Down $23.40

Oil Down $1.95

Canadian $ Down 6 tick @ 102.72

VIX Down 10.34% @ 18.56..Najarian's were sure about 25 ????

Portfolio is F,NVDA,RIMM,RVBD.....

Most stocks are UP....

@ 1.18 following stocks are RED :

SOL,JKS,TSL,LDK,ARMH,SLW,CNQ,
SU,LVS,JASO,HSOL,FUQI,AMCC,
GG,IAG,AEM,GAME,ABX.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

All Indices closed green.....NICE !!!!

Indices closed green despite Oil closing above $102.....

Many participants of this market are failing to see the "clear message".

This is a strong bull market, but traders like Doug Kass are on the wrong side of the TAPE for months .....maybe they have not heard of few famous wall street mantra's..like "never fight the TAPE & NEVER fight the Fed"......Mr Kass issued his 1000th alert today for market "definitive Sell signal"..he issued his 1st Sell when S&P 500 was @ 1000....and since then has issued weekly sell on CNBC & @ street.com

Internals of the market were positive all around......only strong markets turns UP in the face of extremely negative news like Oil @ multi year high & snaps back same day......

Stocks which closed green included RVBD,PLCM,CMG,AMZN,
AAPL,BIDU,MA,V,CNQ,CIEN,FNSR,NVLS,CCME,SOL....


VIX closed down 1.48% @ 20.70

In my portfolio :

Sold FFIV

Added 60% RIMM @ $65.85 which is now 43.16% of my portfolio....

Portfolio is F (12.99%),NVDA (7.72%),RIMM,RVBD (36.13%)....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Gold Down

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Green despite Oil @ $102......NICE !!!!

Indices are displaying "unusual strength" despite oil jumping up to $102....

S&P 500 went down to 1302.58 only,well above recent low of 1294.26 ..Adami is looking for 1175.....CNBC Fast Money has the-most panic stricken traders on planet earth......it is amazing that they cannot read market TAPE ever....do they know that this IS the strongest bull market in history...i guess it needs a "higher IQ"

Oil UP $2.46

Gold UP $4.20

Canadian $ UP 9 tick @ 102.73

VIX Down 2.9% @ 20.40..CNBC fast panic money looking for 25 easy

Portfolio is FFIV,F,NVDA,RIMM,RVBD......

Most stocks are UP

@ 12.52 following are RED :

NVDA,JKS,CMG,NFLX,SLW,SOHU,CCJ,
BAC,MGM,JDSU,STP,HSOL,FUQI,ARUN,
EBIX,IGTE,NVTL,SINA,CSIQ,CTRN,JRCC,
MFC,VLO,SPWRA,FSLR,TTM,SNE,VAR...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Indices closed Down from 1.38% to 1.61%....

Indices closed down about 1.6%, thanks to Oil spiking UP sharply.......

These are Geo-political events which takes a life of its own.

Economic news continues to be upbeat worldwide.

Here is the read on the internals of the market @ close :

Down volume led by 8.17 to 1 in NYSE & 4.82 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.16 to 1 in NYSE & 3.29 to 1 in Nasdaq

New highs were in the lead by 182 in NYSE & 90 in Nasdaq....

VIX spiked UP 14.5% @ 21.01

Here is the closing RSI in indices :

Nasdaq 45.91

S&P 500 48.26

Dow 48.35

Based on the above read we have a very good chance of closing above recent lows.In S&P 500 number to watch is 1294.26.....we may dip below intraday but close is more important.....

In my portfolio :

Sold some FFIV

Added 40% RVBD @ $39.95 from sale of FFIV..RVBD moves up to my biggest position followed by RIMM then FFIV,F,NVDA.....

Portfolio is FFIV,F,NVDA,RIMM,RVBD

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Gold Down

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down from .64% to .97%.....

All Indices are Down & again Nasdaq down the most......

Reason for today's slump looks like Oil...which is UP sharply...

Technically ..this is a basing period and finding support above recent lows....nothing alarming but necessary & NORMAL.....

VIX UP 7.14% @ 19.66

Oil UP $1.73

Gold UP $19.20

Canadian $ Down 29 tick @ 102.63

Portfolio is FFIV,F,NVDA,RIMM,RVBD.....

Most stocks are down.....

@12.56 following are UP :

RIMM,SLW,SOHU,MA,V,IBN,SU,
JDSU,JASO,STP,EBIX,DRYS,GG,
IAG,SINA,AEM,ABX,SPWRA,
FSLR,TTM.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem