Sunday, July 17, 2011

Indices struggling, but many stocks @ all time highs........

S&P 500 has not moved @ all since the start of this year. IF you had invested in S&P 500 ETF in Jan, you are sitting @ zero return.

BUT many stocks are @ all time highs, this is a reality of stock market which many failed to comprehend.

Too much time & energy is wasted about direction of the market. CNBC is "hyper-focused" on where S&P 500 is headed in next five minutes, they keep highlighting RESISTANCE.

It is extremely important to KNOW your own stocks well. it is also important to understand that many stocks do not follow direction of  indices.

SO...this week AAPL makes all time high, while indices were struggling with so-called support.

S&P 500 has been trading in a range of 1300 to 1350....where it goes from here depends on political & economic climate.

We are entering peak earning season, stocks will move based on how key earnings reports are perceived.

Generally speaking, indices do fade after earnings season.

VIX made it to 21.68 then closed @ 19.53, VIX range has been from 15 to 21.

As you have noted above, that stock market does not follow any norm. It trades in its own interpretation of events.Normally markets goes through extended discounted process of issues.

European debt & economic issues in US / Europe needs more time to resolve.

Hopefully, US economy should be in upswing in 2012.

Q4 earnings report should be good & markets may move to new highs in anticipation of that.

My guesswork tells me that we may be heading towards resistance in next few weeks when earnings comes to an end.

In the meantime many stocks are looking good, as some of them are oversold and may be ready for a bounce.

Here is a list of some stocks with their RSI :

ATML 40.19
CNQ 52.17
LULU 70.06
PLCM 51.82
AUY 67.79
UXG 59.10
SINA 61.80
BIDU 62.30
AAPL 69.66
PCLN 53.97
TZOO 66.66
AMZN 62.47
WYNN 73.24
NFLX 61.19

As you can tell many stocks are laggards, while others are making new all time highs, but sectors keeps rotating.

Important message is that you need to stay "stock focus" NOT "indices focus".....indices may test support but many stocks keep going higher.

We all make many mis-takes in picking stocks, but as long as majority of them work out.....we should be happy.

Do not hesitate to dump losers even if you believe in their business model, IF market is not moving them UP...then it is a waste of  your resources.

I had to sell SOL on Thursday, as i do not think there is catalyst for solar sector in short term.I replaced it with UXG @ $6.58....

Here is my $ weighting as of Friday's close :

LULU 32.89%
PLCM 24.63%
AUY 18.24%
CNQ 13.34%
ATML 7.54%
UXG 3.36%

Good luck with your portfolio.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

3 comments:

c said...

S

good morning to you

APPLe is up and our AUY is blooming!!!!!!$$$$

LULU is holding up OK

Have a good day
I hope that your sister had a good stay

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

Thanks for your message re family.

My sister & brother-in-law had a good time with us. They left for Richmond VA on Saturday.

Many stocks are UP nicely.

Saleem

c said...

S

Look at EVEP

oh huge for me

More to come I think

Oil play dunno it you like that or not

best to all