Sunday, August 28, 2011

Deeply oversold condition & Fed brought back buyers......

Indices again were  in a tailspin as Fed Chief was talking, S&P hit 1135.91 which was the third retest of support & each time we held.....1101 was first 1121 was second & 1135 was third.....

S&P 500 closed @ 1176.80..next level to conquer is 1208 which was the technical rebound from 1101.

Many technicians are hopeful that 50 DMA 1260.26 could be reached...then back down.....

As I have said repeatedly, that this market is more tough than 2008...it goes down when no one is ready & it goes UP when everyone is afraid......

How i am interpreting this market ?

This market is most unpredictable, being lucky is better than being smart.

I have more faith in Gold than S&P 500.....

The minute Congress is back, we will see those annoying faces & rhetoric again.....confidence will be lost again.....BUT IF they feel they got enough backlash from Ben Bernanke & their voters while they were sun tanning...maybe they will change their tune to get re-elected.....then we have a chance of hitting 1283.74

I do not know what will work best in this crazy market..but Gold has been working....

Gold high was $1918 intraday & low intraday was $1705...a quick loss of $213 points or 11.11%....all in 36 hours.....On Friday gold closed @ $1797.30 a gain of $92 from low or a quick snapback of 5.39%......

Here is a list of popular stocks in terms of their YTD gains / losses from Dec 31,2010 close  :

RVBD Down 35.29%
APKT Down 14.50%
GOOG Down 11.30%
KGC Down 6.7%
LVS Down 4.6%

AMZN UP 10.70%
POT UP 10.83%
AAPL UP 18.92%
AUY UP 24.92%
PCLN UP 26.00%
NFLX UP 26.29%
WYNN UP 36.00%
CMG UP 40.54%
BIDU UP 44.72%
LULU UP 52.91%

I am sure, you will find the performance of many stocks "surprising"....

Above list can be interpreted to justify one's trading / investing approach.....

Many stocks survived onslaught of bearish attacks by HFT...who has trillions @ their disposal to kill any stock IF they so decide.

IF you had first five stocks....you have lot to think about to IMPROVE returns.......BUT IF you had last four stocks in your portfolio..you were a genius in this environment.....

NOW..the question is which four stocks will outperform in next 12 months ?

That will involve both fundamental analysis & technical analysis......& a big dose of LUCK.....

As you all observed, that many technical traders gave up on this market only to change quickly....market always humbles the best of us repeatedly.......

Good luck in your OWN analysis.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem



5 comments:

c said...

GOOD MORNING

DID you sell AUY

thanks

c said...

S

GOOD MORNING to you Saleem

Day 3 with no electric

I got a generator going!!!!!!!! Ho Ho

I was looking at our old friends LULU, TZOO, CAT as buy for today
I only have about 9K to invest here
thoughts appreciated

No real damage form the HURRICANE in DC
I am Long APPLE and AUY
C

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

NO..i have AUY & added KGC this AM...

LULU is the strongest stock with earnings coming out on Sep 9th.

CAT is good...

I will not touch TZOO...

Saleem

Michael said...

Saleem,

How's your health? Hope everything is okay and back to normal. Thanks for your detail market analysis. We really need you in this difficult time, since most of analysts are useless.

It is good to be back in the US and able to read your blog without any restriction. I was able to anticipate in the rally with RVBD and LULU. I don't know how further it can go. I am thinking of ringing register on LULU and RVBD with handsome profits. I bought some AUY today at the pull back. Thanks.

Michael

Stocks100 said...

Hi Michael,

Health has been a challenge for me.

I am taking beta blocker which should control my symptoms.

I think you should let the profit run on LULU & RVBD until market turns lower.....this is a very tricky market.....

Welcome back to your homeland !!!!

Saleem