This market has put FEAR in just about everybody, it does not matter if you are small retail or huge Hedge Fund Manager
...everybody is shaking their head in disbelief......
What nobody can understand is, how many years Greece is going to trouble this market....Greece was the shocker in 08,09,10 & 11......while it is a small country in terms of GDP & its so-called debt...BUT we keep coming up with an agenda driven story of Greek DEFAULT...Boy 0 BOY..IF it has NOT DEFAULTED in last FOUR years...why would it do NOW ?
Greece on the CONTRARY is making TREMENDOUS sacrifice in terms of TAXING & today it has announced that it has asked everyone to give 1 month of salary by law...it does not exclude even Prime Minister......BUT CNBC keeps on exaggerating minor demonstrations which IS to be expected..as everyone is giving sacrifices in terms of Salary, Pension & Benefits....
I believe that Greece will be forgotten story, but they will create new stories of Portugal, Spain, Ireland to keep CNBC audience MIS-INFORMED......all i can tell you that IF Greece can survive then others will too......
About that famous resignation on Friday, of ECB German official..it is NOT effective until Dec 31 2011...plus Germany has named Deputy Finance Minister as replacement.....
IF you FACTOR all of the ABOVE...why did we go down 300+ points ?
BUT ...that was Friday....a weekly Option Expiry day.....someone was very rich @ the end of the trading day.....it is all about making billions by creating an issue of NON-ISSUE.....& CNBC plays along for its spellbound audience.....who sell @ its command......
All that means that, we should RALLY big-time...as panic driven sellers were all sold-out on Friday.....
In my analysis, as we have TESTED support FOUR times & HELD..we are going to take 1230 out in a hurry..1230 was a resistance TWICE.......it is my belief that 1200 area may become support as we move HIGHER...
Technology is giving all indication, that it wants to move up......Semiconductors are showing sign of life after a long time.....
YES..it is PRUDENT to be aggressive near BOTTOM / SUPPORT......
Good luck with your OWN analysis & homework.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
18 comments:
S
A great blog and every where we look we hear negative news
Thanks
Hi C,
Thanks for your feedback....
Somebody has to "cut the crap"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I think a negotiated haircut on Greek bonds is immiment, but everyone already realizes this...almost 100% yield on the 1-yr Greek T-bill? I'm pretty sure everyone knows the deal.
If European banks truly need additional capital due to sovereign bond haircuts, they will receive it when it actually happens since everyone understands the risks of delay now--we can not go through 2008 again because we know what to do and how to do it!
Additionally, I really believe most companies are looking past these sovereign issues and just trying to run their businesses and grow. Wall Street might be leary of that now, but clarity on the sovereign front, even if it's a "default", should refocus Wall Street on the companies themselves, but by then we could be much higher.
I'm sticking to full allocation with companies that continue to grow because eventually this market fear will be behind us.
Good luck guys! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your take on everything greek.......
Greece has already devalued its bond by 30% on Friday......
All the involved players know all the steps to a "soft landing" of European debt situation.....
I personally believe that we are near "end game" of this crisis.....which means market is anticipating "resolution"..so UP we go !!!!
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
100% agree--resolution is near, and up we go.
One quick thing too--I thought for sure we'd see more selling in the last hour Friday with so much uncertainty. We actually hit the lows right at 3 PM and moved *up* from there. I was surprised and extremely encouraged :).
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I was encouraged by one technical fact...despite all the "so-called calamities"...we did not breach or even came close to 1140?
That was a tell-tale that someone is selling which some were NOT buying ?
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks for your detail analysis.
I think that next week, we will see more roller coaster due to the OE week. HFT will use this week to manipulate the market with bad news/good news approach. However, I agree with you that the individual stocks may proceed higher. Semiconductor stocks performed really well last week. I am looking to start a position with SNDK next Monday.
Good luck to all!
Michael
Hi Michael,
Sometimes HFT takes market higher in a hurry..IF they have loaded up....
Sometimes although RARE...OE may be bullish....
I am feeling very bullish as many issues have been DEEPLY discounted in Aug / 1st wek of Sep.....
BLEEDING needs to be stopped ?
Good luck with your strategy !!!
Saleem
S
And all--Good morning to you
Greece is again the big news--we are going down again
APPLE is so on sale here--get some?
My BIDU and AMZN buys are looking so in the RED
Best to all
hi c,
everything is deep red....
saleem
Saleem,
What will be the game plan this morning? Buy on the dip or wait? Thanks.
Michael
Hi Michael,
Buying on the dip has worked....most stocks are coming near support.
Saleem
Saleem,
It worked all the times. However, fear always get into me when it came down. I will stick to my plan to increase exposure to 80%. Thanks.
Michael
Michael,
80% exposure is good @ this stage.
I think we MAY have a V bottom today.....
Good luck !!!
Saleem
S
AUY is looking attractive here
Hi C,
GOLD may be under pressure for today & maybe tommorrow..thus WAIT !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
Bought SNDK @38.2 and APKT @44.3. Good luck!
Michael
Hi Michael,
Both SNDK & APKT behaving better than market....
Good choice !!!!
Saleem
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