US market has gone from healthy, to technically weak.
Most indices are below 50 DMA & showing negative CMF.
Dow is the only one barely hanging above 50 DMA & barely positive CMF.
It is extremely important to pay attention to fast deteriorating technical picture.
Many strong stocks are in correction territory, a correction is defined as 10% below its 52 wk high.
You can be as bullish as you want, but market reality is a major headwind.
Market gyration is a strong indicator of major outflow.
On any UP days, money is being taken out.
I will strongly recommend reducing exposure & locking any gains which may be there.
Daytrading or even put buying may be a better strategy for next three months. End of July may be a better time to be bullish again.
On a personal note, I have gone negative 4.56% in my stock performance for the year. The only saving grace is, that i am UP 23.50% YTD in my currency exposure. Overall i am UP 18.94% YTD.
RVBD TAPE was extremely disappointing & was subjected to a major selling by institutions. RVBD is expected to earn .97 cents FY12 & 1.19 in FY13..after all the downward revision by analysts, EPS is expected to grow by 22.7%. Stock price generally trade @ EPS growth rate. A fair value of RVBD $1.19 X 22.7% = $27.01...that is where it was trading on the day of its ER. Sales of RVBD is expected to GROW this year by 14.80% & in FY 13 by 17.40%.......all these figures are after revision by analysts. Based on these current revised numbers RVBD is a strong hold for ME.
It is time to "critically examine" your investing thesis, you need to have sound basis for your exposure.Market environment has certainly changed. One day rally is not going to alter technical picture.
Good luck with your OWN read of market & your comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
21 comments:
Saleem
I went to best buy yesterday and stand there for 2 hours playing with new ipad with my children. Lot of people there but nobody buys anything. And I overheard someone said they will wait for better technology before buying another device.
Since AAPL is the king of tech world and whoever what to own a iphone or ipad already have one. That made me wondering how that will impact their earning power.
AAPL does have a lot of say on index, if it go down, market direction will turn sour fast. But on the other hand a lot of stock already give back 10 to 30% from their high since February, so they might be the one who will tried to hold the index in the coming month.
I think market still could go higher before turning south since stocks still oversold.
P.S: Market is a place we all have up and down, even you are down now doesn't mean you will stay there forever. Sooner or later you will say I am up 5% on stocks this year and everything that come before that is just memory you don't even remember.
Hi Up,
Thanks for your optimistic note on my stock performance.
AAPL ER on Tuesday will shape the market......IF there is a miss on iphone & imac sales...Nasdaq may tank 3%......but it may provide a trading buy......
Good luck with your strategy.
Saleem
Up
Best buy is a lookers place
Internet is where we go to buy
This is my first time I see Saleem negative
Gotta see what Monday brings
Very best to you
Hi C,
I look @ market & stocks technicals closely....i do not like what i see......have felt this way for several weeks....
I do not mind being 100% wrong....
Saleem
Saleem
thanks for your reply
it is 7Am and PM is down $125---wow
Also raining in MD/DC
I was hoping for a green day
amazon up and APPLE down in Pe market
C
Hi C,
Hope & technicals are not in sync.
I may lighten up further.
Saleem
S
interesting article on apple
http://seekingalpha.com/article/517391-apple-down-10-in-9-days-is-it-time-for-caution?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0
A good read
v b to all
Saleem
I think market will be fine today after this drop, I got some MS at 16.78 and hope to make a little gas money
Hi Up,
I have resuced my exposure to 88% by selling CNQ.....
Good luck with MS.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Sold the STLD and rotated into OCZ. I am watching RVBD carefully.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I have 3 stocks only to deal with this negativity.
Good luck with your strategy.
Saleem
SALEEM
WOW--- You sold out in one big hurry
Good bet we will see lower lows
If APPLE is any indicator , more pain to come
I may sell AMAZ or CNQ to lighen up!
UP
GOOD LUCK up with MS
Looking bad right now.......
C
Hi C,
When markets go SOUTH..you never know how low....thus reduced exposure....@ 88%
Saleem
C
Currently I am daytrade MS and with no other holdings, so i am good at this moment. market direction clearly indicated we are going down, so there is no urgency to buy and hold, just wanted a little action so I could watch the market
C
I am getting some AAPL for a trade. They report tomorrow, so i think downside will be contain at 560
UP
I love it
I too am looking at the price of APPLE
It has got to be over sold at this point
$562 is the price I see now!!
I thinks that I will buy some at $559 --lets see
I will not get more that 25 shares
Good luck at keep me posted as this drop in price may be a opportunity once in a life time
C
SALEEM
BDI rates are up
C
I sold all my AAPL, got a 10 points swing. Got to take profit when there is one. Will sell my MS later today.
This market had turn to a day traders dream
UP
Glad that you had cash
'
My cash is tied up with the 3 day rule
So no trade
Congratulations
C
Saleem
APPLE has turned green
What gives?
AMAZON big red
My only green is apple
Best to all
Hi C,
Green is good !!!!
Actual quote from movie "Wall Street"
Saleem
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