S&P 500 closed @ 1385.97, highest level since May when it was @ 1415.
RSI @ 61.47, highest level since April when it was @ 1422.
It was all about Mario Draghi President ECB, who is making all the right moves to deal with Eurozone issues.
US GDP was better than expected @ 1.5% growth, expectations were @ 1.2%......
Internals were :
UP volume led by 18.14 to 1 in NYSE & 4.44 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 5.02 to 1 in NYSE & 3.37 to 1 in Nasdaq
New 52 wk highs were leading AGAIN, 236 in NYSE & 89 in Nasdaq
VIX down 4.73% @ 16.70
Oil @ $89.39
Gold @ $1615.10
Canadian $ @ 99.68
In my Portfolio :
Added 50% AUY @ $15.01
Portfolio is BIDU,LVS,NTES,JCP,TCK,AUY
Here is my portfolio weighting :
NTES 25.58%
BIDU 16.92%
TCK 15.98%
LVS 15.59%
JCP 13.84%
AUY 12.09%
Exposure 150%
Stocks which were UP 3% or more included BIDU,JCP,TCK,
COH,LULU,PCLN,AMZN,GOOG,MA,LNG,MU,JDSU,
CIEN,FNSR,C....
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
6 comments:
SALEEM
It is hot here in MD/DC
95% again
Market has been hot too
J Cramer says this should be a strong week, with Friday being sell off cause of employ numbers looking bad
Me may add BIDU back on any weakness in price
C
Hi C,
Market goes UP in a zig zag fashion...plenty INTRADAY opportunities.
We are looking @ 62 to 80 degrees today..currently 69 degrees.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I've done a lot of reflection this weekend. I'll post later today.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with your review.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
So it was another hard week for me. Not only did my hedges crash by the end of the week, but many of my stocks did not perform inline either. So overall, I was down about 2.5% on the week compared with an S&P gain of 1.7%. This is particularly discouraging given I unusually deviated from my normal perma-bullish stance.
The portfolio currently looks as follows:
TZA - 19.2%
CTXS - 8.8%
SPLK - 7.2%
NOW - 7.1%
PANW - 7.1%
FCX - 6.8%
GWAY - 6.5%
ERY - 6.4%
MSTR - 6.3%
ADNC - 6.0%
CLF - 5.9%
PFPT - 5.3%
SQQQ - 4.9%
APWC - 2.4%
(cash) - 0.03%
Although there are some potential pitfalls this week, I suspect an overall upward bias will remain given month-end window dressing and month-beginning inflows. Potential pitfalls include: Monday profit taking, Tuesday poor consumer spending, Wednesday pre-ECB/Fed selloff, Thursday post-ECB/Fed selloff, Friday jobs, Friday profit taking. *Since most traders and fund managers are still underexposed, any of these possible dips will be a chance to buy.*
The biggest "unfactored" risk to the US economy is still the pre-fiscal cliff slowdown. I think much of the guidance for tech companies is too high heading into the second half of the year and eventually we could see that problem emerge. However, the risks from Europe and China look mostly factored in at present, and if anything, market *upside* risk still remains from these areas.
Given this, the trading will likely be biased upward until we see actual companies lower guidance again. We might not see that until CSCO's earnings call or some mid-quarter updates, and even that might possibly be too soon. I have to definitely adjust so that I don't care until the market cares. At that point, selling after the first 2% down could save an additional 10%, but I don't miss the upside prior.
Commodities look relatively good here given emerging markets easing policy and developed markets further stimulus. These might be the best performers in the coming months, especially as the short interest remains quite high and valuations quite low. Additionally, European multi-nationals might have put in permanent bottoms. The euro is likely to get weaker still against the world even with systemic crisis avoided (due to lower interest rates/QE for longer), and with the rest of the world growing, the European multi-nationals can make great profits. I'll do more research on these, but something like a Siemens (SI) comes to mind.
The small caps are still badly lagging this market rally, and it is area of concern for me. I've seen many great growth companies guide just OK, and be punished severely for it. If anything, the companies which have jumped during the earnings season are the stocks with high short interest. This tells me portfolio managers are still not fully engaged given uncertainty in next six months. Even in a upwardly biased market, I suspect smalls caps will continue to lag.
Given this, I will try to sell off any high growth small caps during rallies if they exhibit technical weakness, and I am especially cautious into earnings and will likely try to be out for most. Even if one of my prior stocks pops after earnings, I feel like it will fall back to the breakout point eventually as a test.
Altogether, my plan is to try and remove both the hedges and some stocks in coming days. I hope the monthly-specific flows will help some of my small caps early this week to allow for good exit points. I will feel better with lots of cash and small exposure than this currently hedged non-working strategy. I will then wait for events to develop around my fiscal cliff thesis to act more aggressively.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
I accidentally posted before I was ready, but all I wanted to say extra was:
Ready for an exciting week! :)
Stocktrader
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