Indices faced their first reversal today.
S&P 500 closed @ 1413.17
RSI @ 64.76
CMF @ 0.197
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.16 to 1 in NYSE & 1.22 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.26 to 1 in NYSE & 1.26 to 1 in Nasdaq
New 52 wk highs were leading by 148 in NYSE & 73 in Nasdaq
VIX closed UP 7.13% @ 15.02
Oil closed @ $96.84
Gold closed @ $1642.90
AH ER :
INTU Down 2.68%
DELL Down 4.54%
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Down
AH Oil & Gold Down
About Market, today was a reversal for the TAPE, how long it last is another question. We made higher highs & lower lows all in same day. Fed minutes MAY add fuel to the bearish fire. ECB & Jackson Hole may give some optimism & support. Overbought conditions needs to be corrected, which may take more than a day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS.... i am on vacation in MSP for next 5 days, there will be no BLOG until 28th August. I am hoping that Stocktrader & C will keep posting their take on markets & stocks while i am away.
Saleem
20 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Have a great vacation--you deserve it!! What is MSP if I may ask?
Also, I'll do a daily recap at minimum to help with continuity.
Stocktrader
Hello to all
Market seems to be in a holding pattern until
we get some catalyst going
May be some Federal Reserve news
VBTA
C
Hey c,
AAPL leading the market charge again today. It seems like we could shrug off yesterday's losses? The big news is the Fed minutes later of course.
Stocktrader
Hey c,
I sold about half my portfolio just now. Small caps were underperforming today before the Fed, and I want to lock in some profits after such a nice run. I can always buy back if needed.
Stocktrader
Stocktrader
good afternoon to all!!!!
Always good to lock profits $$$
I have been beaten over the head way to ofter not grabbing profits--it hurts to see money leave the table.
Apple got an upgrade to $750 go figure that one --will ya
The Fed says that they are leaving the door open for more quantitive easing
Gold is flying and housing stocks up--LEN is up $1.20......
My copper play SCCO is down again
MCD is interesting here as is ERF the chart is amazing and pays 7.5%
C
Hey all,
Wednesday Recap:
The markets closed mixed with the DOW down 0.23%, the S&P up 0.02%, and the NASDAQ up 0.21%. The averages were all down until the Fed minutes indicated board members were ready to undertake QE3 if conditions did not improve. Apple was the star again closing up $12.81 to $668.87--a new all time closing high.
The internals showed weakness in the advance/decline line and up/down volume, but new highs outpaced new lows. The $VIX closed up 0.09 to 15.11. Oil and gold moved higher after the Fed comments.
After hours earnings resulted in a 4.8% drop for HPQ, and a 16.3% drop for GES.
Futures are currently indicating a higher open by nearly 4 S&P pts, and oil and gold are building on their daily gains.
Late tonight, the HSBC preliminary China PMI came in at 47.8, a nine-month low, versus a July 49.3. This may increase calls for more Chinese stimulus.
The market overall is churning near 4 1/2 year highs. It would not be surprising to see a pause or pullback in some stocks, but the macro environment still seems conducive for further gains with central banks in easing mode and systemic crisis in Europe abating. A good strategy would be to stick with strong stocks and try to buy on dips.
Stocktrader
HELLO TO ALL GREAT PEOPLE
I watched j Cramer last night He spoke well about the direction of the market, as being up.
He loves BMY, HON, DD AT&T these are all my past fav's
He suggested sell APPLE as it has had huge run--Dunno about selling
I do love the chart for BMY I say it is a buy, it is down $10 smackers as a result of a drug non approval. BUY it--oh it pays a juicy 4.5%
Be careful today as unemployment numbers are UP by 4,000--we now have 372,000 hard core unemployed.
I say stay the course take profits and be nimble, have some cash for a bargin
The Fed may offer some QE3 after Jackson Hole!
GOLD is up and Copper is popping...........
Good Luck
C
Hey c,
Bought some hedge for the 50% long exposure I still had. The market seems a little squishy and the euro might be topping out here? $1.258 now.
Stocktrader
Thursday Recap:
Markets closed down between 0.66% and 0.88%. The fall was attributed to weak Chinese PMI, profit taking ahead of key European leaders meetings, and dampened QE3 expectations after Fed president Bullard spoke on TV today.
The market internals were decidedly negative with decliners leading advancers by just over 2:1, and down volume leading up volume by about 3:1. New highs managed to beat out new lows, however. And, despite oil's drop of 1.0% today, gold managed a 1.9% gain. The $VIX jumped 5.6% to 15.95, and the RSI sits at 56.54.
After hours earnings saw CRM lose 5.1%, ADSK lose 21.3%, but ARUN saw a gain of 15.1%.
AH futures are signaling a slightly positive opening with S&P futures 1.27 above fair value. Asian stocks are down following Wall Street's lead, and oil and gold are both lower.
The market overall is showing some weakness as stocks suffered their worst day of the month. Several reasons were given, but they were all mostly excuses to take profits after "failing" at the 4 1/2 year highs touched two days ago. We may get more choppiness while waiting for fresh catalysts, but the overbought condition has mostly faded, and many stocks are still showing strength. Although slightly lower exposure might be warranted until we know the full extent of this pullback, good stocks can still outperform or rise--stick with your winners!
Stocktrader
Friday news to use
It has been a whirl wind week with market gyrations.
I sold my APPLE shares--it went to far to fast for me!
It was a 3 bagger ! Nuff said,
I got some SDRL, NYB and GGN closed end fund pay 10%
as is GOLD miners orientated.
Gold Copper and silver are up and climbing --whoops , now they are down in price
IMHO BB is the key to market going higher with QE3
I stil; think that DIVI stocks are the safe play here.
EXPE is rocking today
VBTA
C
Hey c,
Interesting mix of stock you bought today! I like the diversity and potential.
I also bought back some stocks on the dip this morning: FIO, NTAP, and ADNC.
As for QE3, I'm not sure what BB will do. I think the chances are 50/50, lower than some think just because economic data is getting slowly better and Europe seems to be getting its act together--but those are good reasons for the market to rally also.
I am deathly worried about the fiscal cliff, but I am letting my good stocks run. If they start breaking down then I'll start getting more aggressively bearish, but for now, I'll enjoy the ride! :)
Stocktrader
Friday Recap:
Markets closed up between 0.54% and 0.77% recouping a large portion of yesterday's losses. The indices started lower, but bargain hunters stepped initially after a weak week. Late morning comments by Bernanke in a letter to Representative Issa defending further QE measures, and more indications from Europe about the bond-buying program helped solidify and build on gains.
Market internals were nicely positive with the advancers leading decliners by over 1.7:1 and up volume led down volume by nearly 2.1:1. New 52-wk highs reached a total of 132 versus 49 new 52-wk lows.
Oil closed $0.12 lower to $96.11 despite rig closures from the gulf hurricane threat. Gold edged up $0.10 to $1672.30 after a 3.3% gain on the week. The $VIX closed at session lows down 0.78 at 15.18, and the RSI now sits at 60.84.
After hours saw AAPL prevail in its patent suit against Samsung. It traded up $11.73 to $674.95 on the news.
The market overall staged a nice rebound after sluggish action all week. Buy/sell indicators are now roughly in balance, so everyone is waiting on the next news pieces to tip the scales into new multi-year highs or fall back down.
I'll write more on Sunday about the market picture and the upcoming week ahead. Maybe we'll have a Chinese RRR cut to discuss by then?
Stocktrader
thanks stocktrader for filling in!!!
Thanks for the support! I could never be as good as Saleem, but I'm trying the best I can to help! :)
Stocktrader
Sunday market analysis and outlook:
So now here we sit within 1.1% of 4 1/2 year highs in the S&P after breaking a 6-week winning streak for the index. So the question is, where do we move from here? Do we break to newer highs? or merely pause? or start a deeper correction?
It appears this week is shaping up to be fairly benign. Given the usual market dynamics around the end of a month, we should see a bias towards low volume, drift higher activity as money managers stay invested and even support their positions through the end of the month. Add to this the fact that Bernanke and Draghi speak in Jackson Hole Friday and Saturday respectively, it is unlikely shorts want to make large bets ahead of this potentially market moving event and longs are expecting further market supportive comments, especially from Draghi. The additional fact that markets tend to trade higher ahead of 3-day weekends all point to nice gains ahead.
Beyond this week, certain technical factors are troubling. The $TRAN (transportation index) is lagging significantly behind the other averages, and is barely above its 200 DMA--I found this very surprising in my workup! The $RUT (Russell 2000 Index--small caps) is also lagging well behind the major averages. It tried and failed to break above its July high this week (in July the S&P was merely 1375). These two index divergences are a troubling indication of the "power" behind the S&P rally. It may signify a greater pause ahead in the near future.
Combined, these data points paint a picture that some stocks are doing fantastic, and most others are doing just ok. This often happens in low volume environments, which we especially have currently. There is not enough market participation to lift all stocks, so the ones moving higher just keep moving higher as people want to be in the few nice winners. It becomes especially important then to prune our portfolios to be in these winning stocks.
The economic and earnings calendar are both relatively light this week. And to be fair, economic data has been generally mixed and not creating much of a factor in the markets.
To recap, I expect further upside in the averages this week, maybe even to the point of a minor breakout in the headline S&P. We should not consider this the "true" breakout, however, as volume needs to return before that can happen. Be wary of underperforming stocks as they may not find much support during this "window-dressing" week.
Good luck to all! :)
Stocktrader
HELLO to all.............
market is down some today
APPLE is a monster again
I deo not see much volume--we need that for more up turn
Take advantage to sell any week stocks and look for any bargain
VBTA
C
Monday Recap:
Markets closed mixed with the DOW losing 0.25%, the NASDAQ gaining 0.11%, and the S&P nearly flat at down 0.05%. Weakness in many cyclical stocks due to the Chinese market's multi-year low offset gains in technology surrounding AAPL. The recent pattern has been to see down Mondays for many weeks now.
Market internals were fairly flat with decliners leading advancers 1.06:1 overall. The NYSE down volume led 1.43:1 over up volume, while the NASDAQ only saw a 1.02:1 down lead. 52-wk highs numbered 171 overall, well beating the 52-wk lows of just 52.
Oil closed 0.6% lower at $95.54, although gold again managed a small gain of 0.2% to close at $1675.50. The $VIX ended near sessions highs up 1.17 to close at 16.35. The RSI now stands at 60.35.
After hours earnings saw PVH gain 5.4%, and PWRD dropped 8.7%.
Pre-market futures are currently indicated down about 4 S&P points as Asian markets trade lower. Oil and gold are also lower in the overnight session.
Overall the market exhibited general sluggishness with low volume and mixed indices and stocks. With many traders on vacation and month end approaching, expect more of the same in coming days. I'm looking for better market numbers the rest of the week, but will be powered by the group of stocks that are already winners.
Stocktrader
Hey all,
I'm looking closely at the IWM chart. With the outperformance yesterday and further positive action today, it might actually be setting up for a break out rather than a break down. It kind of looks like a cup-and-handle formation.
On top of that, I only expect more crisis resolution from Europe and potential easing from China and other emerging economies, so I can't see a good reason to not be as long as possible right now.
Given those reasons, I sold my TZA hedge (triple short Russell 2000) today.
Saleem are you back?! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
YES..i am back..MSP stands for Minneapolis St Paul..where my friends are.
Thanks for doing an outstanding job of keeping this BLOG interesting.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Glad to have you back--I hope the vacation was relaxing!
I live in an MSP suburb.
I tried to channel my inner Saleem, but its great to have the real one back! :)
Stocktrader
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