Indices celebrated "unbelievable jobs report" in US which came in 83% higher than consensus. Canadian Jobs report was only "593% higher" than consensus...i guess we do not have good economists anymore.
S&P 500 closed @ 1418.07
RSI @ 56.55
CMF + 0.176...highest level since mid September 2012
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.40 to 1 in NYSE & .75 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.22 to 1 in NYSE & .89 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 52 in NYSE & 22 in Nasdaq
VIX closed Down 4.10% @ 15.90
Oil @ $85.93
Gold @ $1705.50
Canadian $ @ 101.10
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included LEN,
APKT,RIMM,M,SNDK,AEM,GG,FCX,DNKN,
CLF,FB,ZNGA,LRCX,BRCM,C,SLW,MGA.
BAC,MS,KOG......
Portfolio weighting is :
KORS 25.32%
AUY 23.59%
JCP 21.52%
LULU 16.42%
LEN 13.15%
Exposure 68%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Well, this was really a horrible week for my portfolio. I lost nearly 5.6% and it seems unusual given the market overall action, but I realized Friday what was the major problem. Here's the portfolio now:
ELOQ - 11.2%
GWAY - 9.8%
GGC - 9.4%
CRUS - 9.3%
SPLK - 8.8%
FIO - 7.9%
AAPL - 7.2%
STLD - 6.9%
CF - 6.9%
PFPT - 6.8%
PANW - 6.6%
WPRT - 6.5%
APWC - 2.6%
(cash) - 0.02%
What I realized Friday was that many of my companies are recent IPOs and probably have insiders with shares priced ages ago much lower then here that would definitely benefit by selling this year versus next as the capital gains tax will almost certainly increase. This effect is larger in the more illiquid stocks like ELOQ, PFPT, GWAY, SPLK, PANW, but also affected some big gainers on the year like AAPL and CRUS. I don't know how much more tax effect will come into play the rest of this year, but it is probably too late to sell any of these, especially since almost any possible seller will be completely gone by the new year meaning potentially huge rallies in these stocks.
As for the overall market, despite what I thought might be slight to moderate weakness as the time ticks on, we actually showed impressive strength in the face of more political stalemate. This is partially due to nice gains around the world this week as European markets reached 52-wk highs and China bounced nicely. Again, this really sets us up for a huge catch-up rally when we finally get our resolution.
I am not sure if we continue to grind higher this week if the politicians continue to posture instead of compromise, but there doesn't seem to be a reason to be out of the market as sentiment is still cautious (contrarianly so) and the improved world outlook acts as a buffer. The market realizes any real fiscal cliff panic if we fall off will likely force quick resolution, so closing your eyes for the next month might be the best idea if it means you can stay exposed. This also allows for full exposure if a deal is reached sooner.
I realize I can't predict the fiscal cliff swings nor how much tax selling needs to still happen, so I will just be content waiting on my portfolio. I might try selective intraday sell/buyback moves or swapping stocks making unusual moves, but my exposure should remain full.
The countdown continues...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ONLY if we all could predict the future....
TAPE has been tough for everybody, the only reason i am UP .96% for the week because of my currency exposure which showed a gain of 2.35%.....which meant i lost 1.39% in Stocks.....
Good luck in this week....
Saleem
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