Many technical indicators are flashing sell signal ?
Here is few to keep in mind :
-CMF 0.223..highest level since September 2012
-RSI 64.59...near high since September 2012
-Bulls 51.1% Bears 23.4%..Bulls @ highest level in a long time....
-S&P 500 @ 1472.05.....near high point of several years.....
-VIX @ 13.36...2 multi year low..denotes extreme bullishness
-Euphoria is @ extremely high level as everybody is talking bullish...Bears voice is non-existent...
It is important to recognize these extreme bullish readings, & factor in your decision making & or comfort level.
What happens @ these extreme levels on a historical basis, That we may overshoot & then fall hard for weeks.
IF we look @ S&P 500, it may make a nominal high & go to around 1500 area & then retreat & drift lower..
It is extremely critical to take advantage of high prices & book gains.....
Some of you may be looking @ outsize gains in your portfolio, cashing @ this stage is prudent.......
As you can tell, i am extremely nervous about TAPE, it is too good currently.
I may reduce my exposure this week to extremely low level & may wait for better pricing.
It is good to be wrong near highs, as nobody has the talent to lock highest prices.
Good luck in your OWN strategy.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Your words of caution are a great balance to many of us who get too bullish near tops thinking things will last forever. Formulating and sticking with an exit strategy is one of the toughest yet most crucial parts of stock investing.
Currently, I am less nervous because I feel like so much mid/long-term nervousness has to unwind still. Many investors are only just now allocating money to stocks after hiding in bonds for years.
The low $VIX tells me that stock picking can rule again with major market headline risk out of the way. Even if you don't see the the averages move too much, I think the nascent growth themes can really do well. I've given my portfolio and general thoughts on your Friday post.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
The biggest purpose for this BLOG is to talk about things "no one is talking about"
Making money is the "easy part" BUT "keeping money" is the-most difficult part......
My point is to focus on keeping money.....first 8 days of this year has been very good...that is to be kept in perspective......
I do get worried about various statistics "based on historical pattern"....
Saleem
Post a Comment