Indices struggled whole day & closed mixed.
S&P 500 @ 1519.79
RSI @ 66.40
CMF @ 0.362
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.45 to 1 in NYSE & 1.73 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.06 to 1 in NYSE & 1.10 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 264 in NYSE & 166 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 1.58% @ 12.46..low today 12.24 which was a previous 52 wk low.
Oil @ $95.86
Gold @ $1609.50
Canadian $ Down Down 53 tick @ 99.39, manufacturing data was well below consensus.
In my portfolio :
Sold FB
Portfolio is BAC,BBRY,YHOO
Exposure 44%
Stocks which were UP included KORS,LULU,
DNKN,MOS,MON,GOOG,FFIV,COH,
LNKD,MA,V,SNDK,SINA,MGA...
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
The week turned out pretty well with an overall gain of 1.7% versus the S&P 0.1%. Major gainers this week included AXLL (+8.4%), WPRT (+10.5%), SPLK (+4.7%), and DSPG (+7.0%), offset by some losses in CSOD (-4.2%) and FIO (-3.5%). Here's the portfolio now:
AXLL - 8.7%
SPLK - 8.4%
BAC - 8.3%
PANW - 8.3%
PRU - 8.1%
FIO - 8.1%
CSOD - 7.5%
PFPT - 7.2%
WPRT - 6.5%
DSPG - 5.9%
YNDX - 5.8%
SONS - 5.5%
AUDC - 4.3%
MLNX - 4.3%
APWC - 3.0%
(cash) - 0.02%
The biggest changes I made this week were to sell off some cyclically-exposed stocks for some speculative growth stocks. To that end, I sold CLF, STLD, CRUS, and bought DSPG, YNDX, SONS, AUDC, MLNX. With a bit of luck, this helped me avoid the CLF crash this week of 21.0% after earnings. Otherwise, the two other earnings features this week were AXLL, which turned out great, and CSOD, which was great in numbers/talk but poor in price action--I'll be watching that one more closely now.
The upcoming week will see earnings from YNDX (in the portfolio) and CF/WLT (recent, but not current, holdings). The really interesting ones are the following Thursday (Feb 28th) of PANW, SPLK, and SONS--I'm definitely looking forward to that day (although I'll be short on ears!).
As for the overall market, I'm pretty nervous. The WMT "warning" Friday gives us a troublesome peek into early February consumer sales trends. The automatic sequester cuts set for March 1st could slash as many as 750k jobs by year end according to the CBO (Congressional Budget Office--the official "scorer" for the government) and will hit many companies tied to government spending, including some high tech. Although there are reasons to assume the worst case is not in play, you have to wonder what February/March is really bringing. Couple the possible economic retrace along with the overbought and slowing momentum market, and it really could provide the first meaningful pullback we've had in this year.
The danger in predicting pullbacks in this strong bull phase is that you'll sell on a panic and be left behind, so I guess I'm carefully watching S&P levels and acting accordingly. Even more so, I don't want to sell my special story stocks, so maybe something like selling PRU/BAC/AXLL and putting on a hedge might be the best idea. I'm still thinking about that now, but am also cognizant of the month-end positive effect we might see.
Although China seems quiet now (partly due to the New Year holidays), looking towards Europe finds the Italian elections outcome growing ever murkier. I'm really not focused much on this at the moment given the market's lack of attention to it, but it may be worth watching if people start to key on the negative influences in the world.
In summary, I would definitely have to say I am more worried now. We've had a nice run in the market this year and a pause is due at some point. Will we finally start to see that with some of the factors I've mentioned above? Possibly, and I definitely want to be thinking and ready for changes I need to make.
Have a great extra day off! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Excellent summary of things to consider with your conclusions.
I am glad that you are marching along nicely into positive mode.
I had to buyback my Canadian $ exposure which was acting weak on commodity weakness....now i have ZERO exposure...so no impact on its volatility against US$ from hereon...straight gain or loss from stocks.....
Saleem
Post a Comment