S&P 500 has been hovering around 1500 area since mid January, it seems that we have not only built a nice base but has tested support around 1485 area since first week of January 2013.
After eight weeks of base building & testing we could be setting UP for a "breakout".......
1530.94 should be taken out easily......
How high we go will depend on Friday's jobs report which has consensus of 165K....
I believe that this time we may exceed consensus
Market has ignored many below consensus stat worldwide from Chinese PMI to Italian mess, this is a proof of strength & resiliency of this market.
US political wrangling over spending cutbacks have a silver lining. As politicians lack the will to do anything about controlling cost or balancing the budget, sequester was a trap they all fell in nicely. March 1st cutbacks will force both democrats & republicans to accept what has taken effect for the most part.
Impending shutdown of US government by end of March is another silver lining for market, as politicians must agree to something to keep everything afloat.
Hopefully US political wrangling will be off center stage or TV by end of March.
Bullish reading is @ 46.3% while Bears remains @ historical low of 21.1%......but we may go to extreme bullish reading of 60% in this run.
All in all stars are lining UP for a breakout this week or shortly thereafter.
TAPE is rewarding good stories & is punishing poor performers.
Stock selection remains key to making money.
Swing trading may be the-best approach around higher end of trading range.
This week we may establish a "higher trading range"
Good luck with your OWN strategy & comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hey Saleem,
The sentiment indicator I watch, Investors Intelligence Sentiment Poll, has dropped from 54.7% bullish on 2/6 to 46.3% bullish on 2/27 (the bearish percent actually remained flat during that time).
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
I know there are different polls--I thought you might find this one interesting also.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Schaeffers weekly report which is issued every Sunday mentioned 55% as bullish indicator which is NOT matching with their website numbers....
46.3% is what they are showing on their website...i will correct it shortly.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I've noticed in the past that our sentiment indicators are never matching. I think Schaeffers compiles multiple sentiment surveys data, so I don't think the one you initially used was wrong, just different.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Bulls may be lower than what i read but bears are certainly very low..extremes generall portends reversal...but we have new highs to be made shortly.....
Saleem
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