Indices closed the week on a down note as Fed chatter about Taper dampened enthusiasm for equities.
S&P 500 @ 1691.42, low 1686.02
RSI @ 56.59
CMF @ 0.166
Internals were :
Down volume led by .96 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.05 to 1 in NYSE & 1.49 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 29 in NYSE & 89 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 5.34% @ 13.41
Oil @ $105.97
Gold @ $1312.20
Canadian $ @ 96.97
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included ANR TCK CLF
YELP KORS MKTG TRLA SPWR GMCR LEN BBRY
PCLN ZNGA FSLR X STLD EGO SLW SINA Z
MGA WLT.......
In my portfolio :
Sold CLF MU
Bought ANR @ $5.82
Bought KOG @ $9.75
Bought TCK @ $26.45
Bought BAC @ $14.48
Here is my portfolio weighting :
AUY 25.85%
BAC 18.35%
TCK 16.85%
F 16.21%
KOG 12.32%
ANR 10.42%
Exposure 145%
Call options in KORS expired .... CSIQ is 0 bid.
CSIQ earnings were opposite of what i was expecting....i am a "contrary indicator" for earnings this year ..so far.....batting 0/5........
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A long, eventful week and weekend is finally over and I find the portfolio up 1.43% versus the S&P's -1.07%.
Biggest Winners: CLF (+18.3%), TCK (+11.4%), FCX (+8.3%), X (+8.1%), CSOD (+6.5% from purchase), KORS (+4.7%)
Largest Losers: YELP (-9.1%), MODN (-8.5%), CLDX (-5.6% from purchase), RDN (-4.2% when sold)
Here's the current portfolio:
Materials/Energy: TCK (x1.25) CLF KOG FCX X
Internet Sites: FB YELP TRLA YHOO
Software: CSOD TXTR MODN
Consumer Discretionary: KORS (x1.5) SODA
Other: WLK (chemicals) CLDX (biotech) WLH (housing)
The moves this week included new positions of FB/CSOD/CLDX, add-ons to FB/YELP/WLH, a trim of TXTR, and sells of OMED/CMI/M/RDN. The objective here was to focus on companies with improving outlooks and take some profits in winners.
The earnings week played out mostly as expected with the big reports of KORS and TXTR looking great. As for the others, even though WLH's report and conference call were impressive, no one seemed to care and the stock ended hardly moved. MODN was a big disappointment as it lost its head of sales, but the stock moved up nicely intraday to close near the highs. Possibly the greatest call I heard this earnings season was from CSOD, and I bought as soon as I could. One of my watch stocks that I could never get going on was CSTE, and it rocketed 26.9% this week on earnings--opportunity missed.
As earnings season winds down, it is a time to reflect on what we've seen and really focus on those stocks that have performed and guided well with solid or accelerating business trends. I think KORS, CSOD, and FB are good examples across different industries.
Another area of heavy attention in the down week for the S&P was the major outperformance of the materials stocks. We see signs of economic stablization or improvement across the entire globe, and these stocks are starting to reflect that. Although many have had good runs, we know investment managers are still well underweight these names, so I expect the run to continue although will likely be more choppy going forward.
The overall market was very confusing this week as most stocks were down on further taper talk but materials performed well. We also saw the dollar down and bond yields down. Most of these things don't work together in a single thesis, so I think we just saw profit taking across the board (including taking profits on those long-time materials shorts). If it was only profit taking, this week should see gains again as people get back involved, but a lot of technicals look suspicious right now, so I'll be carefully monitoring. At some point, the looming debt discussion and deadline could put pressure on stocks. Congress comes back from recess September 9th.
In summary, I'm a bit confused this week and watchfully wary of general market trends, but remain optimistic about my companies and their outperformance. I've tried to select great companies in various industries and so far the diversity and selection has done well. I'm not sure how much activity I'll have this week, but am always looking for opportunities.
Hope all is well! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Nice outperformance for another week.....your hardwork is giving you all the gains.....
Your analysis is detailed & logical.
Saleem
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