Indices closed down on shutdown worries.
S&P 500 @ 1691.75, low 1687.11
RSI @ 53.14
CMF @ 0.052
Internals were :
Down volume led by 2.84 to 1 in NYSE & 1.34 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 2.07 to 1 in NYSE & 1.59 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 46 in NYSE & 77 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 9.96% @ 15.46
Oil @ $102.87
Gold @ $1339.20
Canadian $ @ 97.00
Stocks which closed green included AMCC FNSR JKS KOG MU
YHOO FB KORS TRLA TSLA M DNKN CSIQ SPWR
EXPE PCLN EBAY MA SBUX SLW Z MLNX.....
Sold ANR $6.09 BAC $13.91 CLF $20.94
Bought MU $17.81 KOG $11.96 & added 65% JCP @ $9.28
Portfolio weighting :
FNSR 22.45%
AMCC 21.24%
MU 18.49%
JCP 17.64%
KOG 10.74%
JKS 9.44%
Exposure 172%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A slow week for the markets resulted in the portfolio down 0.33% versus the S&P's -1.06%.
Big Winners: YHOO (+8.5%), FB (+7.9%)
Large Losers: TXTR (-4.5%), MS (-3.9%), X (-3.4% from purchase), SODA (-3.3% upon sale)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +57.97%
S&P: +18.62%
Expecting a decline, I came into the week with substantial cash (~29%). After sitting pat for a few days, on Wednesday I sold SODA due to competitive concerns and added to YHOO for a fresh breakout and still-compelling valuation math. By Thursday I felt we'd experienced enough selling and fear surrounding the political debate, so I went on a buying spree, starting an X position, adding to MS, and establishing a large TNA position. On Friday, I filled out the portfolio with a SPLK purchase, and swapped some TNA to add more RALY on the pullback. Here's the way the portfolio looks now:
TNA - 16.1%
FB - 10.8%
CSOD - 10.4%
RALY - 10.4%
KORS - 7.9%
YHOO - 7.7%
TXTR - 7.2%
MS - 7.0%
LCC - 6.7%
SPLK - 5.6%
FCX - 5.2%
X - 4.9%
(cash) - ~0%
This week was all about waiting on US politics. Ahead of what traditionally has been contentious negotitations and negative stock market action, investors chose to remain on the sidelines, with many raising or having raised cash. With more of this expected in coming weeks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see more sluggish action. Although not expected until mid-October when final debt ceiling negotiations are almost complete, the rally we eventually see could be extremely impressive with all the sideline cash available and refreshing certainty upon us.
Even now, some stocks are still performing well, and the $RUT put up the best performance of any of the indices being *up* 0.13%. FB and YHOO are examples of those in my portfolio, and many of the other "anointed" stocks did well like CLDX, TSLA, SSYS, and LNKD. Investors are willing to look past the short term issues of politics to add to these growth stories at any chance.
Economic data in the US is mixed but overall still consistent with a slowly growing economy. It remains to be seen how the impact of somewhat slower housing and weaker consumer sentiment will impact the data in subsequent months. There's a distinct possibility that the Fed stays on hold for some time still until the economy is showing greater strength and traction.
With the market likely on hold until the political wrangling has passed, the opportunity exists to build the portfolio for the upcoming Q3 earnings season and year-end price action. I own fewer companies than I have in a long while, but this is because my confidence level is high in my current holdings having listened to the Q2 conference calls and expecting certain momentum into Q3, but also due to less confidence in other stocks I follow for one reason or another. Keeping companies in which you have high confidence is key right now as the market is cautious and vulnerable to headline risk. After further thought, I'll likely sell my TNA position and look for individual opportunities in the coming weeks.
Good luck to all as politics drags on...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Another week & another outperformance by you.
YES..politics will mess things up for few days......
Good luck next week.....we all will need it.
Saleem
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