Friday, October 4, 2013

Indices closed UP .51% to .89%....NICE !!!!

Indices ignored politicians & went about their own business of trading. By close indices closed near highs.

S&P 500 @ 1690.50, high 1691.94

RSI @ 51.94

CMF @ 0.149

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.61 to 1 in NYSE & 4.18 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.96 to 1 in NYSE & 2.18 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 114 in NYSE & 117 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 5.26% @ 16.74

Oil @ $103.84

Gold @ $1309.90

Canadian $ @ 96.94

In my portfolio :

Bought TRLA @ $47.57

Here is my weighting :

FNSR  19.70%

AMCC 18.84%

MU       16.72%

TSLA   14.04%

TRLA   12.28%

KOG    9.94%

JKS     8.48%

Exposure 182%

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included FNSR KOG MU TSLA
YHOO YY FB SINA CF FFIV KNDI WPRT ARUN RVBD
CRUS CIEN KORS PANW SPLK SPWR MGA WLT
YELP

Next post by 2 PM Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

After some bad moves and a choppy overall market, I still managed to gain 0.24% on the week versus the S&P's -0.07%.

Big Winners: LCC (+7.6%), X (+5.1% upon sale), YHOO (+4.0%)

Large Losers: OMED (-7.7% from purchase), RALY (-6.2%), TRLA (-5.6% from purchase)

I stood pat the first two days of the week as momentum was good. As Wednesday came into focus, it seemed the small caps were starting to struggle some, possibly weighed down by sentiment surrounding TSLA's big decline that day. I took that opportunity to take off my large TNA position (as I mentioned in my closing remarks last week) and captured a good gain for such a large position. I went bargain hunting on Thursday after the gap down, but the market kept falling and I ended up with all poor buys in initiating BIDU, OMED, and TRLA positions. Only the add-on to LCC worked well. On Friday, I sold MS to buy CLDX, and also closed out X at day's end to have some free cash for this week. Here's the current status of the portfolio:

Core Positions:
FB - 10.8%
CSOD - 10.1%
RALY - 9.7%

Supporting Positions:
LCC - 9.4%
KORS - 8.1%
YHOO - 8.0%
TXTR - 7.3%

Speculative Positions:
SPLK - 5.7%
FCX - 5.2%
TRLA - 4.7%
CLDX - 4.6%
OMED - 4.6%
BIDU - 4.5%

(cash) - 7.4%

This week looked a lot like last week: waiting on US politics. There were a lot of ups and downs based on perceived deal progress and also factoring in some short-term oversold conditions. Many investors are using dips to buy quality names as cash levels are above normal, but the overhang of politics limits the upside. I expect more of this to continue, with probable downside bias, as we near the debt ceiling final deadline.

The $RUT still outperformed this week, but cautiousness crept in some mid-week after a big down move in TSLA. Also, some of the biotech complex finally saw profit taking. In some of my very smallest volume stocks like RALY, CSOD, and OMED, it was hard to find support as investors seemed unwilling to add to low liquidity names, a function of the fear surrounding the political and market environment. Unfortunately, I expect this particular dynamic to continue, and it puts me in a difficult spot with two of my largest positions where I love the outlook and valuation, but am worried about near-term trading action.

Economic data continues to be mixed, with the services PMI showing especially poorly this week. I wonder if the political wrangling is finally weighing on business and personal decisions.

To this end, we have to start thinking about implications for earnings. We may hear commentary about a "slowing" at the very end of the past quarter and the beginning of this one, but I am *especially* worried about overly cautious guidance from the first batch of companies to report while we are still under this cloud of uncertainty. This alone could be enough to spark a deeper selloff , although the rebound on a debt deal gets that much better. This potential outlook makes me want to lower my long exposure for now, but I'm not sure the best way to do that yet. I hope to have a plan ready by tomorrow morning.

Overall, I think the political debate lasts easily through this week, and that puts the market in danger. This week saw a balance between dip buyers and fearful sellers, but another week without resolution could tip that balance negatively.

Please everyone use extreme caution during this time.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Our views of caution are matching as US politicians drags us down......

You have a well balanced portfolio.

Saleem