Here we are stuck in the mud while House is gone home to celebrate weekend. Senators will duke it out with a mix of hope & hurdles......
Thursday is the "dead line"......no wonder this word is so disturbing.....
I do not expect anything to be done until the last second of Thursday dead line........
How will market react depends on what is announced before Japan opens or before US market opens......
What i am expecting is some kind of news of framework which needs to be voted....House is expected to vote on Monday evening.......
Monday may be OK on hope & Tuesday could be troubled as House may not agree in its vote......so it is back & forth until they kill the time until last second on Thursday.....
As we all have seen this movie before every three or six months...TAPE may be anticipating "final agreement by Thursday deadline.
TAPE also has to deal with "below expectations" Chinese trade data......
It is never easy in markets.......
It will be a good idea to buy or reposition on any weakness......
Some key earnings may give lift to sentiment..Tuesday is YHOO, Wednesday is SNDK & Thursday is GOOG......
Q 4 is a good time for technology & retail.....but this government shutdown may impact key Q 4 Sales for both sectors.......
Again strong companies may fare better in dealing with delayed Sales......
I am a bit optimistic as we are down to last 96 hours of haggling & then an itsy bitsy deal & everyone declares victory...all they will do is push everything to next 45 to 90 days.......
Never a dull moment in US political theatre......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It is a shame that earnings have to take a backseat to political posturing. I didn't even talk about upcoming portfolio earnings like YHOO in my writeup.
I am worried that a 4-6 week extension will not be as helpful as the market thinks given the uncertainty it would bring throughout the quarter to business and consumers.
Overall, our political situation is not only making us unattractive to worldwide investors, but it may actually be forcing a breaking point in the economy also.
So many things have changed in just a couple of weeks...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Lately it is the political mess which is impacting US market.....
IF we have another 300 points dip then it will shake investors & traders confidence......
We all are spectator in this mess...
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Sold everything I could today except FCX (BIDU, SODA, MNST still on restrictions):
TXTR @ 39.710
TRLA @ 42.920
LCC @ 20.534
RALY @ 28.600
CLDX @ 26.962
CSOD @ 49.113
KORS @ 73.177
X @ 22.026
YHOO @ 33.835
FB @ 48.375
There are certainly some of these I probably shouldn't have sold, but I didn't have good ideas on how to differentiate this morning. Obviously, this gives me a chance to reset some and figure out opportunities.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I know this is a decision based on your take of how politicians are hell bent on making a fool of themselves....
Good luck with reset.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I even consider up to a 2-month extension of the debt ceiling "bad" news even though almost certainly the market would rally initially.
The only way I'd probably get back in would have to be a 3+ month extension, such that businesses and consumers could at least have certainty though year-end.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I am looking forward to the day when all these issues are done forever....& politicians never paralyze whole US...
"that someday may never come"
Rest is all "gimmickry @ best"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
The market looks so strong today despite the lack of a deal (although the Senate seems to be making good progress).
This could be really painful mentally for me if the market starts to run away. I guess I should have taken the pulse better before acting.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
@ least you have four stocks to benefit from this turnaround....
I thought TAPE will be fine for Monday but may be down for Tuesday....let us see how it plays out.
Saleem
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