Jobs growth was a stunner 204K vs expectations of 120K......Good news became very good news today & indices erased everything from yesterday & then some.
S&P 500 @ 1770.61, high 1770.78, low 1747.63
RSI @ 61.36
CMF @ 0.319
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.78 to 1 in NYSE & 4.51 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.35 to 1 in NYSE & 3.03 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 56 in NYSE & 91 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 7.26% @ 12.90
Oil @ $94.60
Gold @ $1284.60
Canadian $ Down 45 tick @ 95.13
Here is my weighting :
JKS 33.53%
MU 29.41%
LNKD 20.57%
FNSR 16.49%
Exposure 192%
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included FNSR JKS LNKD
MU KORS AMZN YHOO AMCC GMCR CSIQ FSLR
CMG SU LVS BIDU FFIV PCLN AAPL MA GRPN
RVBD SNDK C GS MS QIHU YELP NFLX
SBUX X STLD AEM LCC WLT TRLA
Z WYNN AGU SPWR.....
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Despite some poor decisions mid-week, the portfolio overall gained 2.82% versus the S&P's +0.51%.
Notable Winners: WUBA (+14.2%), CLDX (+13.4%), YY (+11.0% upon sale), SODA (+7.6%), KORS (+5.3%), CSOD (+3.8%), LCC (+3.4%)
Notable Losers: RALY (-4.8%), BIDU (-4.3% upon sale), FB (-3.8% from purchase), RL (-3.0% from purchase), YELP (-5.8% from new rebuy after booking a 5.2% gain earlier in the week)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +54.82%
S&P 500: +24.15%
This week I stuck with my bullish stance despite high volatility in the averages. Early on Wednesday I took some profits ahead of the TWTR pricing selling YY, YELP, and BIDU. I also picked up RL after earnings to play a strong holiday spending season. At close on Wednesday I rebought YELP as it had dropped 5.9% intraday, and bought FB near open on Thursday thinking the social stocks would stage a rebound after TWTR finally started trading (which didn't happen). Here's how the portfolio looks after the changes:
Highest Weightings (12.0-11.4%): AAPL LCC CSOD KORS
Middle Weightings (10.0-8.6%): RL FB RALY
Lowest Weightings (7.3-5.5%): YELP SODA WUBA CLDX
New: RL FB
Sells: YY BIDU
Sell/Buyback: YELP
The state of the market really has two sides to it: the very highest growth stocks and then all of the rest.
As for the latter, I think market skepticism is finally creeping back in after we saw a large selloff subsequent to some of the most bullish confidence readings in years. The reasons for recent market highs are valid though: newly stable/growing world economies and continued efficiency gains at companies leading to consistent profit growth and improving outlook. I expect the combination of seasonal effects and lack of negative catalysts to propel the general market into year's end.
As for the highest growth stocks, there's a slightly different picture forming. Given that very many traditional stocks are growing now in this better worldwide economic environment, I'm not sure how much portfolio managers will be willing to pay for very high growth but little/no current tangible earnings (albeit purposefully). Pretty much the whole batch of stocks I follow in that arena, including CSOD, RALY, TXTR, WDAY, DATA, Z, TRLA, LNKD, YELP, FB, SPLK and many more, have fallen below their 50-day moving averages and failed on retests in recent weeks despite the Nasdaq and other averages at/near new highs. This leads to a possibility of a "shakeout" in coming weeks even as the major averages trend higher, and beyond that into next year, there could be sluggish trading for quite a while as the real earnings play some catchup with the stretched valuations. I am considering highly a sellout of my portfolio stocks in this area as they may underperform a rising market or even outright decline.
One of the biggest boosts to the underlying economy recently has been the decline in fuel prices. Many consumers are seeing gasoline prices under $3/gal now, and I think this will lead to a great holiday shopping season (even if it is shorter than last year). My addition of RL was based on this premise, and I look for KORS, AAPL, and even SODA to see incrementally better numbers also. Airlines, like portfolio holding LCC, are "double beneficiaries" of this effect as they see increased consumer spending along with reduced fuel costs. I hope this low fuel trend lasts for many years with the ever-increasing supply of oil we now have in this country. It could provide an important tailwind for economic activity going forward.
Overall, I expect the market to grind higher after the scare this week. Healthy skepticism has returned and economic activity shows good trends despite the political problems of October. The very highest growth stocks are vulnerable, but the majority of stocks should see inflows anticipating broad world growth ahead.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Outstanding gains in a very challenging week which speaks a lot about your strategy & stock picks.
When i look @ your strategy i do not see any weakness @ all as overall your portfolio outperforms....so do not be hard on yourself for minor misses.
Saleem
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