Indices closed @ high of the day.
S&P 500 @ 1798.18, high 1798.22
RSI @ 68.14
CMF @ 0.343
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.45 to 1 in NYSE & 1.91 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.90 to 1 in NYSE & 1.52 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 213 in NYSE & 132 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 1.46% @ 12.19
Oil @ $93.84
Gold @ $1287.40
Canadian $ @ 95.42
In my portfolio :
Sold MU $19.58
Sold JKS $29.36
Added 60% FNSR @ $21.85
Portfolio weighting :
SINA 46.95%
FNSR 27.54%
LNKD 25.51%
Exposure 100%......reduced from 202%......
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included LNKD MU
LULU NFLX BIDU KORS YELP WPRT ARUN
GMCR CIEN JDSU MA PANW SPLK JCP
X TRLA MLNX TXTR.....
JKS reports before open on Monday, here is expectations :
Q3 Sales $302.22 million, EPS 45 cents
Q4 guidance Sales $326.83, EPS 67 cents
Conference call @ 8 AM Monday
I sold JKS before earnings because it was a very heavy weighting in my portfolio plus i had a large gain already.
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Thanks to a few key winners, the portfolio advanced 2.84% versus the S&P's +1.56%.
Notable Winners: WUBA (+20.4% upon sale), CSIQ (+10.0% buy/sell), YY (+7.8% buy/sell), KORS (+4.2%), TXTR (+3.1% from purchase), LCC (+2.9%)
Notable Losers: CLDX (-3.2%), ZU (-2.3% from purchase), RALY (-1.9% upon Monday sale), YELP (-1.5% upon sale)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +59.22%
S&P 500: +26.08%
Based on last week's outlook, I sold all my social/cloud stocks (FB, YELP, CSOD, RALY) on Monday and rotated into some cyclicals like CMI, KRE, and CSIQ. I wanted to be fully invested in this market, so I rounded out the portfolio with additions of YY and ARUN on Tuesday. The rest of the week was quiet until Friday when I sold some stocks I thought vulnerable to profit taking like CSIQ, WUBA, and YY. I also sold SODA and KRE due to underperformance, but added back some old favorites like RALY and TXTR due to a feeling they had bottomed. Finally, I took a speculative position in the new IPO of ZU. Here's the current portfolio:
Highest Weightings (11.7-11.6%): AAPL LCC KORS
Middle Weightings (9.8-6.9%): RL CMI RALY TXTR
Lowest Weightings (5.2-3.4%): CLDX ARUN ZU
Cash: ~18.2%
New: CMI ARUN TXTR ZU
Sells: FB YELP CSOD SODA WUBA
Sell/Buyback: RALY
Buy/Sell: KRE CSIQ YY
In retrospect, it turned out unnecessary to dump the social/cloud stocks. All of them performed decently or well after I sold them on Monday with YELP being the biggest gainer (+13.4% after I sold). Thankfully, I made some nice gains in CSIQ and YY with those proceeds, and WUBA really helped bring the portfolio up this week.
I feel like maybe we're in for a churn week with a small upward bias, keeping in a range between 1790-1810 while we digest last week's gains. Certainly some of the recent fliers could see profit taking, hence my sales of the Chinese stocks on Friday after great runs by many of them. I also think they may be more exposed to volatility as the new Chinese directives are digested thoroughly.
I think it is clear the economy is on an upward track, with economic and sentiment indicators likely to show that in coming data points. This is really the tailwind for the market as we approach year's end, and the upward bias with short bouts of profit taking is likely to be the ongoing theme.
Some key earnings reports this week will interest me. Besides the cloud standard CRM on Monday, SPLK, TXTR, and ARUN all report Thursday after the bell. Although SPLK is a fantastic company, it is too expensive for me to want to own into earnings. TXTR is not much cheaper, but really dominates its market and is earlier in its growth trajectory. ARUN's recent analyst notes have been very positive, so I have a speculative position for earnings.
One thing that is difficult about this market is the number of stocks rising. Often when everything is rising, some stocks get ignored as people go for easy stories or valuations. This makes something like an LCC grind higher daily, but makes a young company like TXTR a trickier play. I'm still trying to get a feel for exactly which stocks will get that year-end effect, and it seems the "anointed" stocks may fall outside my usual stock universe. This is giving me some mental anguish and constantly makes me question my picks and forces frequent changes. I am hoping I'll find my acceptable combination of stocks soon.
All in all, there's nothing to stop this bull run, especially in November. As we look to December, we may see some political problems come back in focus, but even then, the reach for winners and the overall economic backdrop will likely be strong. They key now is to be in the winners and buy good stocks on dips.
May everyone find their winning combination! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
The beauty of research is the pursuit of the-best ideas.
In this market, the-best ideas keep changing from day to day & week to week......putting pressure on all of us to do better......
Good luck with your "ideal portfolio" into year end.
Saleem
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