Jobs report came well below expectations, economist need to watch weather channel more than their out dated consensus forming habits. Economist will learn more IF they just stepped out of their offices into real world instead of being in their comfort zone of powerful servers.
S&P 500 @1797.02, high 1798.03
RSI @ 49.69
CMF @ 0.130
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.80 to 1 in NYSE & 5.48 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.50 to 1 in NYSE & 2.35 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 56 in NYSE & 18 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 11.26% @ 15.29
Oil @ $99.88
Gold @ $1262.90
Canadian $ @ 89.82, Job growth in Canada was well above consensus, everybody glued to weather channel here.
Stocks which were UP 2% or more included JKS
YHOO LULU FB BIDU EXPE TSLA NFLX
LUVPCLN KORS TSL SINA CSIQ COH
FSLR GRPN ARUN GMCR BRCM C
SPLK SBUX EGO SLW GG AEM
CCJ SPWR CSOD TRLA
WYNN TRIP.....
Here is my weighting :
JKS 40.77%
MU 33.52%
KOG 25.71%
Exposure 138%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
In a week that tested the resolve of many, the portfolio gained 1.23% versus the S&P's +0.81%.
Notable Winners: AAL (+6.3%), RALY (+8.1%), POT (+7.3%), NOW (+7.0% from purchase), SPLK (+3.7%)
Notable Losers: QUNR (-5.7%), PFPT (-4.1% from purchase), JKS (-3.4%), CSOD (-2.9%)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -3.52%
S&P 500: -2.78%
The moves this week were out of some stocks post-earnings and ones with more cyclical exposure in favor of those pulling back after great earnings and in secular growth areas. Here's the portfolio currently:
The Big One (12.9%): AAL
The Rest (7.7-5.1%): CSOD RALY POT NOW FDX SPLK DATA PFPT AGU CLDX QUNR JKS
Cash: 12.3%
After a horrible Monday because of the well-below expectations ISM manufacturing data, we saw constructive trading the rest of the week. This was driven by oversold conditions and rapidly-shifted bearish sentiment coupled with more moderate data late week and a realization that weather effects are inherently temporary. Given we closed at the highest level in two weeks, all of the oversold conditions have been worked off, so we may trade more calmly as people focus on good stories without fear of some dramatic collapse.
To that end, I've shifted a lot of the portfolio to companies in the high growth areas like B2B cloud software along with certain recovery stories like airlines and fertilizers. I am still fearful of problems in emerging economies which may be impacted by a slight slowing of growth from China and tapering from the Fed, hence my desire to stay mostly non-cyclical right now.
Some key earnings this week include CSOD (Tue PM) and non-portfolio names of NUAN (Mon PM), MOS (Tue AM), CSCO (Wed PM), Z (Wed PM), MET (Wed PM), TRLA (Thu PM), AMAT (Thu PM), and CLF (Thu PM). Along with CSOD, I will be very interested to see MOS, and wonder how Z will be received.
Some big missed opportunities were from the earnings of YELP, KORS, and EXPE (all prior portfolio names), with YELP in the portfolio until just moments before close on the reporting date. Although I can't go back on those decisions, it is important to learn any possible lessons. This is also tricky because some other high profile names like TWTR fell significantly. I guess understanding that most leaders continue to lead right now is important. An expanding market opportunity along with a leading position is the key for future growth (obvious? but hard to remember sometimes in the moment). In the end, I have to trust my read of companies and do the best I can as events unfold.
This week could be a nice stock picking week as long as dramatic events don't unfold. I like the "new" growth stories to continue their outperformance, and have a few funds to deploy if opportunities arise.
Good luck to all! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Your portfolio is performing nicely despite some decisions which could have helped your return.....but that is life in Wall & Broad.
It will be interesting to see how TAPE behaves....
Saleem
Post a Comment