TAPE struggled whole day but managed to close @ high of the day. Dow made another all time closing high.
S&P 500 @1878.48, high 1878.57, low 1867.02
RSI @ 53.97
CMF @ 0.237
Internals were :
UP volume led by .86 to 1 in NYSE & 3.09 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.26 to 1 in NYSE & 1.77 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 9 in NYSE & new lows were leading by 105 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 3.80% @ 12.92
Oil @ $99.99
Gold @ $1287.60
Canadian $ .91...Canadian job numbers were bad....
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included GRPN LULU OWW
YY YELP LNKD AMZN BIDU TSLA PSLN GOOGL TSL
JKS CSIQ SPWR SINA CMG FFIV YNDX BSFT
LSCC CIEN JDSU NFLX GMCR SBUX CCJ
CSOD WLT TRLA WYNN TRIP.....
Here is my weighting after close :
LULU 32.96%
WUBA 21.85%
SWIR 17.91%
MU 14.44%
OWW 6.66%
GRPN 6.18%
Exposure 179%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
An internally disparate week for the markets saw the portfolio lose 0.82% versus the S&P's -0.14% and the Russell 2000's -1.91%.
Weekly Winners: AAL (+4.9%), WLH (+4.6%), YELP (+2.3% from purchase)
Weekly Losers: DATA (-8.9% from purchase), JKS (-6.4%), PFPT (-3.8%), Z (-3.4% from purchase), MS (-3.3%)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -4.03%
S&P 500: +1.63%
Russell 2000: -4.85%
The most notable day of the week was Tuesday when the averages took a surprisingly big dive. The other days saw down moments but rallies by the end of the day to come well off the lows or be positive. The high beta stocks again underperformed but showed some stability by week's end. I added to my exposure in this area as the selling lessened throughout the week and overall company valuations seem much more reasonable after many ~50% haircuts. Here's the portfolio now:
Top holdings: AAL (21.4%), M (13.4%), GM (11.1%)
Middle holdings: FDX (9.6%), MS (8.3%), WLH (7.2%)
Beta holdings (6.2-4.1%): JKS PFPT YELP SPLK DATA Z
Cash: 0.1%
Closed: MOS
New: DATA SPLK YELP Z
Trimmed: MS
So, here we sit after another relatively flat S&P week and more high beta weakness, and my outlook for the market is nearly unchanged. Trader sentiment remains skeptical, earnings are outperforming, and the economy is showing renewed strength. The negatives of China and Ukraine have been digested unless things get dramatically worse. I see nothing to impede the breakout to new highs, dragging the shorts kicking and screaming along.
The subtle change from last week is that I think there's now a more solid footing for the high beta leaders. Stocks which reported increasing revenue growth like PFPT have already shown relative strength, and those with amazing reports like DATA seem to have found stability. The other known leaders with separation versus competitors like a YELP or NOW or CRM have also seen support hold. I think these kinds of stocks with larger barriers to competition and/or accelerating revenue growth can see relative strength going forward. I would still be careful of second tier names or less robust business models.
The only portfolio name to report this week will be M on Wednesday morning. I expect them to have done reasonably well despite Q1 challenges, and I look for an even more positive outlook.
In summary, I am almost excited about the prospects for the market. The "broken" part (beta names) may have found stability, and the economic engine of the US seems to be revving up, even housing. With interest rates very low and earnings on a positive trajectory, I think the market upside could surprise in this traditional "sell in May" month. Given how long we have churned in this S&P range, the breakout could be significant, and therefore holding tight to your winners and letting them run is likely the path to the best profits in the weeks ahead.
Good luck to all! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
TAPE has gone through digestive phase of working out euphoria & brought it down to fear level...perfect set up for firework on Wall & Broad....
Saleem
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