Indices closed UP after two down days, indices closed near high of the day, an oversold bounce.
S&P 500 @ 1936.16, high 1937.30, low 1927.69
RSI @ 61.36
CMF @ 0.548
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.36 to 1 in NYSE & by 1.91 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.35 to 1 in NYSE & by 1.02 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 78 in NYSE & 38 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 3.03% @ 12.18
Oil @ $106.91
Gold @ $1274.10
Canadian $ @ 91.32
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included WUBA GRPN
MU YELP COH LNKD BIDU TSLA AG LVS KOG TSL JKS
CSIQ CMG SU SPWR ONVO INVN GTAT AMCC JCP NFLX
SPLK X STLD ABX SLW DATA CSOD WLT TRLA Z WYNN MLNX...
Here is my weighting @ close :
LULU 26.69%
WUBA 26.02%
SWIR 18.30%
RAD 13.16%
GRPN 8.86%
OWW 6.97%
Exposure 183%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hi Saleem, given the current geo political environment wouldn't it be more prudent to stick with large cap ie GE than invest in mid to small cap where market downturn would be much more damaging thanks charlie
Hi Charlie,
Please read my Sunday analysis & you will see how i am looking @ geo political issues.....
This is a market where big & small caps are both working....there is more money to be made in small caps...they are higher beta..
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
In a "pause" week for the markets, I was able to gain 0.58% versus the S&P's -0.68%.
Weekly Winners: YELP (+14.9%), SPLK (+9.2%), PFPT (+7.4%), DATA (+3.6% from purchase), CSOD (+3.4%)
Weekly Losers: AAL (-8.0%), GM (-2.5%), WLH (-1.3% upon sale)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +0.03%
S&P 500: +4.75%
Russell 2000: -0.08%
I only made small adjustments to the portfolio this week. Here's what it looks like now:
Top Holding (12.4%): AAL
Middle Weightings (9.8-8.2%): MSFT AXLL DHI GM GS MS SPLK
Speculative Weightings (7.0-5.2%): YELP CSOD PFPT DATA
Cash: 0.0%
New Position: MSFT
Closed Position: WLH
Add-on: SPLK
Trim: GM
There always seems to be something in the midst of a bull market to give traders/investors a reason to worry. This week that reason was the Iraqi conflict. The market, sitting short term overbought, was vulnerable to profit taking, and we saw that during the week. Let's not get confused though--this is still a bull market.
With the RSI on the $SPX back to more reasonable ~61 levels, we have worked off the strictly overbought condition, and can move constructively higher from here. Yes, Iraq will be a worry, but the primary real problem it causes is higher oil prices, and so far there hasn't been anything near a spike like we might expect from this type of conflict. I believe that as long as oil remains under $110, we could see better trading as the situation is digested.
Another major event this week is the Federal Reserve meeting, and a key press conference after. Everyone expects the continued tapering, and the soothing, intelligent words from Yellen afterwards should be positively viewed.
Finally, we see some tech names report like ORCL, ADBE, and RHT. These are each interesting to watch in their own right, but an exact translation to other tech stocks is sometimes hard to make. I think we should be watchful, but not too reactive, based on what we see from these players.
In summary, I don't expect much change from the standard bull market. The small caps will likely outperform, and certain individual names/sectors will do extremely well in alternating turns. A small to moderate amount of worry/skepticism is great as it provides constant fuel for gains.
Good luck to all in navigating these waters! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good outperformance against indices.
Hopefully noise of Iraq will subside and go out of headlines....
Saleem
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