Sunday, July 27, 2014

Month end buying or selling ?

Here we are approaching end of July......

S&P 500 sitting @ 1978.34, 13 points lower than all time high.

CMF @ 0.203 @ lowest point since mid May, this is a significant stat as it shows money is leaving equities.

Russell 2000 is in serious trouble below 50 DMA & slightly above 200 DMA.....

Fed statement coming out on Wednesday @ 2 PM

Jobs report on Friday @ 830 AM.

Bonds are strong

World politics is @ recent low with conflicts being encouraged all over.

Stiffer sanctions against Russia is extremely bad for Europe's economic well being

All the political figures are "acting tough in their rhetoric"

Diplomacy is taking an "observers role"

World citizens are watching all this with sheer disgust......as they know very well its not a video game.

YES..it is important to factor all of the above when "tensions are being ratcheted up" as it affects investments, economic activity which in turn affects stock market....

SO...all of the above can take this market down in the coming days.....

We may witness month end selling to accelerate going into jobs report.

Fed may also inject fear about economy being better than before, thus invoking fear of interest rate hike earlier than anticipated.

Friday's jobs report may offer positive news as US economy is chugging along nicely.

We are certainly entering a period of pressure on stock market.

This negative bias may not end until end of August.

SO..what does this means in terms of trading ?

Book profit ASAP

Do swing trading or daytrading which may give you some profit IF you know some stocks well.

Otherwise reduce your allocation & go to safer stocks which is "not high beta"

Sometimes, you cannot fight the TAPE......we may have entered such an environment.

Good luck on your own strategy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem




8 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I see some warning signs too. Time to play it more safely I think...

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

The blogger site is doing something strange where it says no comments exist but if you click that, you'll see the comments. I'm not sure if you didn't see my weekend recap/outlook because of that glitch.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I am really looking to add to GTAT when the time is right. I think they are a fantastic longer term story as many of their products are entering new markets.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Sorry for not replying to your messages...

Today i was busy with EID which is our religious festival which involves meeting relatives and friends....

Will be back to normal BLOG tomorrow.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I hope the day was great! :)

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

YES it was a very hectic but happy day meeting many friends.

Bought MU @$32.05....had a buy order before open.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Good luck with MU. Many semis have been trading poorly and I'm nervous about further declines.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Today MU & SNDK are behaving much better after slumping for few days.

Saleem