TAPE was under short covering spell after Russia concluded its military exercise near Ukraine border. While Iraq & Gaza remained troublesome.
S&P 500 @ 1931.59, high 1932.38, low 1909.01
RSI @ 43.04
CMF @ -0.011
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.73 to 1 in NYSE & 2.53 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.14 to 1 in NYSE & 2.29 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 10 in NYSE & 38 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 5.34% @ 15.77
Oil @ $97.65
Gold @ $1311
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included LULU MU RAD
GOOGL COH LVS WYNN KOG LEN AMZN SINA
FFIV MA SPWR INVN YNDX HIMX ARUN
BRCM AMCC JDSU JCP M SBUX X
STLD ABX CCJ MGA MS WLT
GS MLNX....
Here is my weighting :
LULU 25.29%
MU 20.29%
SWIR 17.71%
FB 16.45%
RAD 12.87%
EGO 7.39%
Exposure 187%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A volatile week that ended mostly flat saw the portfolio lose 0.13% versus the S&P's +0.33%.
Weekly Winners: WLH (+6.1% from purchase), GTAT (+5.3% upon sale), PFPT (+5.0%), M (+4.0%)
Weekly Losers: SPLK (-6.9% from purchase), AAL (-5.7%), SRPT (-5.2% from purchase), NOW (-2.8% from purchase), BWLD (-2.7%), NXPI (-2.1%)
During the heavy down Tuesday, I added many of my favorite names back as I thought most of the worst geopolitical fears had been factored in. Here's the portfolio composition:
Top Weightings(8.1-6.4%): M CMI GS FB AAL POT ETN
Middle Weightings(5.8-5.0%): NXPI BWLD GM NOW SPLK PFPT WLH
Speculative Weighting(2.8%): SRPT
Cash: 10.1%
New Positions: ETN CMI GM GS POT SRPT NOW SPLK WLH
Closed Positions: GTAT
So now that we have faced a decline of almost 5%, where do we stand now? I think some of the signs are pointing higher, but caution is still warranted medium-term.
It was looking very rough overnight Thursday on news and technical follow-through from the bearish engulfing candle that day. However, once we got a piece of good news Friday morning, the very short term oversold conditions and overly bearish sentiment charged the indices forward again to end the week slightly positive. With the Russell 2000 outperforming (+1.48%), and many traders/investors still "offsides" on this abrupt move, I suspect the positive momentum to continue.
Beyond this continued short term move higher, I think we need to be watchful of the potential impact of a European slowdown (even without Ukraine problems) and the Chinese backlash against US companies. Overseas weaknesses, combined with a stronger dollar, could lead to outlooks that miss expectations. We are probably a month removed from any preannouncements, so we have time to prepare for these potential events.
A good plan at this time is allocate money to those companies that reported well, but got hurt during this selloff. We all have our favorites that we watch, and I suspect those will outperform as investors will be most comfortable with those outlooks and management abilities. I may have a few losers in my portfolio still that need to be worked out.
Some things I'll be watching this week specifically are earnings from CSCO and M. CSCO will be a big report to indicate the health of IT spending (and potential international security concerns from China and Europe). I am actually concerned about their report. As for M, many analysts are looking for a good quarter, so I'm not sure how it will react after, but I think the stock is still cheap even here as long as they continue to execute.
Overall, I'm expecting a short term positive bias barring new geopolitical problems. It will be a good chance on bounces to sell stocks that aren't performing well.
Good luck to all! :)
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Oops, forgot the YTD info:
Portfolio: -0.62%
S&P 500: +4.50%
Russell 2000: -2.77%
I still have some work to do...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I think we can sing "don't worry be happy "
Happy days are here....
Storm has passed....
Good luck!
Saleem
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