Sunday, October 4, 2015

Can the indices jump 5.73% from here ?

There was a consensus building as to the direction of this TAPE......it was a unanimous conclusion of all technicians, fundamental trackers, HFT and traders.......it was a fast drop to 1600 in S&P 500.....

The trouble with consensus IS that everyone is positioned to " benefit from that thesis "..so everyone in that group had either sold their position or were heavily short this market.......or many variations of that strategy....

Guess what..... we never took out August low of 1867.01......so the-most optimistic short like Louise Yamada & Carter Worth were off by only 267 points or 14.30% in S&P 500......BUT they were very convincing on CNBC with their 40 way charts.......

I am glad that i never take these "charts seriously"...they reflect "past not future"

Future is not ours to see but be ready.....

Ready we were in this BLOG for a long long time, that this is a "TAPE trying to digest many issues"

Wall Street has the unique capability to "take sure shot bet money into heaven" and they never return to this planet earth......

After 7 weeks of holding support and not breaking below August low, any rational mind should have known that "wall Street does not wait that long to break any lows "

BUT....emotions,charts and "death crosses" forces many smart people to see down down & down......see everything were sloping down on charts...but that slope had hit mud..so was stuck in the mud for 7 weeks ......

And bulls and bears hit multi decade low this Wednesday, a gap of 10.4% lead for bears..i do not recall such a lead for bears in a long long long time....as many BLOG readers know that these are "unbelievable reliable contrary indicators"

IF we follow basic TAPE action, it would have told us that we are building a nice base for a major move UP.......

SO....what we do, TAPE comes within 5 points of August low and made a U or V turn whichever turns you like......

And to top all of the doom scenario, we got a lousy jobs report..you can imagine Yamada & Worth excitement with that report..when we went down 258 Dow points in a hurry......BUT something strange happened to fast trip to 1600..we turned UP 200 points, a turnaround of 458 points..but that is being challenged by few diehard bears as nothing significant ?

Bottom line is that, we have moved 79.45 points or 4.24% in S&P 500 in 4 trading days......

Next target is a move to 50 DMA which is only 2.60% away...which 50.77 points to 2002.13 in S&P 500...

After that, we may push towards 200 DMA which is 111.75 points from current level or another 5.73% to make a "golden cross"......goodbye "death cross"

These are not difficult targets to get to 2063.11 in S&P 500.....

SO..relax and get on board with this 'Changed bullish TAPE"

It was a painful 8 weeks, but last 4 days were "super sweet"

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

7 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought TZA @ 49.25 to establish a hedge ahead of some buying I plan to do today.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Bought FIT @ $37.70.

Good luck with your hedge and buying.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought AMBA @ 61.50

Ugh, the action today is fierce to the upside. I'm seeing so many things I liked go straight up. Hard to figure out the correct entries now...

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Good luck with FIT. Tons of non-believers there to drive upside.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought BABA @ 63.82

As I even mentioned Friday, I think China is the spot now, and BABA could easily double over time as it addresses a larger market than the US by at least double.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Added more to BABA @ 63.90

It was acting very well intraday despite the small market dip, so I added more. I think downside is so limited that I feel pretty comfortable.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with AMBA and 2X BABA.

Saleem