What have we done in last 18 trading days ?

Remember Louise Yamada, Carter Worth & Jim Cramer call of extreme caution for lower market & troubling 10 days?

This is what indices have done in last 18 trading days :

Dow        UP 10.90%

S&P 500 UP 11.10%

Nasdaq   UP 12.51%

Do not follow any pundit but follow the market, that is the only lesson one can learn.

Market does not care what you think where market is headed or any of the celebrated gurus equipped with their 3D charts analysed 3 ways......

Many chartist are always looking back to make their point, but they do not have any chart to look for future trend, drawing their version of future direction has been so wrong, its not even funny.

Why do i keep pointing these erroneous calls, because guru following can be fatal for your financial health.....

SO...how does the market looks now ?

Let us look @ RSI for answers :

Nasdaq   @ 65.96

S&P 500 @ 67.21

Dow        @ 70.30

Any student of market will tell you that near 70 area there is a need for caution. In strong markets RSI has gone to 75 area before turning lower to 50++++

Recognizing where we are in market trend is half the battle, rest is all strategy.

SO...you want to play earning reports of good company with rising profit ? should pay off.....still.

BUT...weak earnings report will be punished @ this stage of the market...so choose carefully.

None of us can play earning bets very well, but we can play with reduced exposure when not 100% sure.

FB which is reporting following week, has built a nice base and is making series of new highs is my highest weighting for a long time & should do well in report reaction......

It is important to have high comfort level in earnings season.......or else have lower exposure.

SO...market may work its way higher to 75 RSI area, but after that, it is extremely risky for near term.

Please know your technical indicators well, it is good to be an expert in one indicator instead of being confused with several, i tend to stay with RSI & sentiment as my few focus, has served me well over decades.

Good luck with your strategy !

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem