Everyone is fixated as to what will happen on Monday, there is lot to worry about changing dynamics in 2015, which is becoming a losing year.....
We are getting so close to Christmas and there is no rally....
December traditionally is a strong month but its not ending that way so far....
We started December @ 2104 area, currently @ 2005, a drop of 99 points or down 4.7%....this is not how we want strongest month to look ......
SO......all of us are almost ready to close the books for 2015 in 6 trading days, and it is not looking pretty @ all.
2015 for the whole year is also looking a down year....to the tune of down 4%
I am saying as goes 2015, so goes 2016 also....
SO what happens now ?
We have a support in S&P 500 around 1980 area about 25 points below.....
There may be a weak bounce back from there.......
For 2015 market has traded between 2116 and 1860 area......
2016 may look like 1860 to 1980 range.....
1860 may become a magnet for 2016.....
SO...how to position in this 2016 scenario......
Be ready for many test of 1860 area.....
I see 2016 where we may lose 7% in S&P 500.....
SO..between 2015 & 2016..we may have a back to back losing year with a combined loss of 11%....
2016.....could become a traders market, sell the rallies and buy the selloff over & over again.....
I see hope in energy, casino & hard liquor sector, thus an exposure in these sector is highly desirable for a long term approach.....
Look @ the big picture which has emerged since start of 2015, now free money from Fed is gone and banks may not know how to earn in a real world.....that has changed now and for 2016....
Good luck with your own understanding of TAPE and stock market going forward.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hi guys,
Sold URI @ 69.75 to take profits.
I don't know why the pop this morning, but I'll take it and run! :)
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
I was so excited to sell the URI pop that I forgot my sneaky thesis on it. Given how warm this winter has been so far, I am expecting a lengthening of the construction season in many northerly markets. I will probably try to re-enter because the sentiment is so poor on these stocks and I think this one is executing well as evidenced by last quarter, and actually has a tailwind this quarter to offset the lower oil markets.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Bought DAL @ 51.00
The earnings revisions higher and the strong chart make this a prime candidate for a year end run.
I am still looking at ways to get back the URI exposure, but maybe I can push that off for a bit?
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with DAL.
Saleem
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