2016 strategy......

Here we are @ the start of 2016......

This is a clean slate......

You can fill this slate any way you want.....

2015 was a flat year with minor gain in Nasdaq for the year...

2015 was the year of FANA.....Google is Alphabet now

Rest of the stocks got no bid...

SO..how the indices may fare in 2016....

Can 2016 be a "down year".....

There are many things which has created uncertainty, some of the important ones are :

- Oil...Saudi's are still flooding world market with lot of crude

-Commodities are in a freefall...no real growth in GDP worldwide

- Gold is sitting near multi year lows, no inflation thus no need to hedge

-Technology has very narrow focus and only few companies are in driver seat...

-Smartphones and Tablets are saturated now

-Computers are in a 10%++ decline

- Majority of world economies are running deficit to spur growth

- World currencies are in total turmoil, Chinese Yuan is going down in value, Indian Rupee is down, Canadian $ in freefall...to name a few..

I think most readers will conclude that we may be in trouble in 2016......

January effect is being touted as end all and be all, it does not matter what it does based on many factors listed above.....

I have a feeling that first 5 days of trading may be negative, thus more selling may come early in January......

Stock market changes its pattern quite often, in 2016 it could be doing opposite of what common thinking may be.....

For 2016......i see a trading market all the way until Q 4.......

Trading means that you look for trading opportunities in strong stocks only.....

No bargain hunting in weak stocks.....

2016 could be a year of small gains in "opportunistic trading "

Indices overall could be down all over, but you can still position to make money in a "selective mode "

2016 could be a very "tough year" for laid back investing style.....

Staying in cash may be "more beneficial "

We have not seen a "normal down year of 8% or more for a long time "

2016 may be that 8% down year.....

2016 could be a year of  " judicious stock picking "

You have to pay attention to what may work vs what is actually working.....

Since 2008 many traders have not seen a down year, so it is a new learning all over....

Do not get euphoric over few days of gains and think that we are going higher. 

I expect sharp volatility from nowhere....

2015 saw triple digit moves on a frequent basis, i do not see that changing anytime soon.....

Good luck with your own analysis and strategy !

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem