In the last 27 days of trading S&P 500 has moved UP 181.78 points or 9.61%......
RSI @ 70.36....in overbought territory
VIX @ 13.10....also signalling overbought
CMF @ 0.289...first major deceleration in money flow
Oil @ $36.79......corrected quite a bit and may have found support
Gold $1223.50.....also pulled back to support area.....
On Friday, TAPE was strong while Oil was down, this is a breach of current linkage and may have started delink, means oil can be up and indices may be down....
SO....what is my interpretation ......
Whenever above scenario develops, it is better to be cautious.....
Cautious means book profit wherever you may have.....
Sell weak stocks as they may fall further, more than strong ones....
Wait till market has completed its corrective phase.....
Buy when previous support is not breached......
I know.....you may think this analysis may be premature but RSI has been my most reliable indicator.
I buy aggressively or maintain my position when RSI @ 30 area and keep selling near 70 area......
TAPE needs rest and may buy time until next catalysts......
YES...it is a strong bull market, but RSI cannot be overlooked.....
Nothing wrong in being conservative and booking profit, as they say, nobody got poor booking profit....
Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Rebought my last prior holding I hadn't yet: Bought SPLK @ 49.48
Back to the same portfolio I had a week ago, but I saved nearly 2% in the portfolio overall, mostly with nice FB RLYP URI HUN sells before rebuying. The NXPI SPLK BAC sell/buybacks were approximately net neutral.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with SPLK.
Saleem
Post a Comment