Sunday, June 12, 2016

Is Brexit going to derail this market......

Brexit took a toll on markets on Friday, Britain exit from EU will cause major disruption in stock market and currencies, it is still possible to get a no vote from Brexit.

Fed meeting is a non event in itself for June, but, it may signal that July may be OK for a hike in interest rates.

Hike by .25% in July may be OK IF that is all its going to be, but sadly, we may get another one before 2016 is over......

Markets go through these adjustments all the time, sometimes its mild reaction but sometimes it could be a full fledged correction.

How to position for upcoming Fed statement for Wednesday @ 2 PM is usual approach, measure your own risk tolerance and comfort level.

Following week on June 23rd is Brexit poll, still hoping for a NO vote which may trigger a huge rally worldwide...

SO...from Monday to following Friday as per our time zone, we will be driven by sentiment / polls of Brexit with a side order of Fed statement in 72 hours.

I am going to stay the course with usual profit taking IF possible, or deal with the market blows as and when it comes.

It is not only hard but impossible to time the market as many have learned the hard way, it is better to stay in the market with a diversified portfolio and hope for the best.

Except for inverse position, there were no winning sectors in Friday's slump.

Stay the course or make minor adjustment, is all i am going to suggest till Friday the 24th.....two full weeks of  " uncertainty "

VIX jumped big time on Friday plus 16.33% to 17.03.....this may have given lot of room for positive action in equities IF polls swing to NO vote in Britain.

Good luck with your own take of market and your comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


4 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold TZA @ 36.06

Many groups which I expected to do poorly today are rallying. I think the tone is improved today after a thoughtful weekend and so I am less bearish for now.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Less bearish is a good thing.

Good luck!

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Wow, the market flipped around in a hurry...bought TZA too early last week, sold TZA too early this week...surprised I made any money at all in it!

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Market tricks all of the trader all the time......

Saleem