Thursday, July 28, 2016

Indices mixed......

Indices are mixed but @ high of the day, despite lower oil.

S&P 500 @ 2168.51, high 2168.51, low 2159.74

Internals are mixed with NYSE positive and Nasdaq negative

Oil Down 79 cents

Gold UP $5.80

Canadian $ UP 17 tick @ .6830

VIX Down 1.48% @12.64

In my portfolio :

Sold NXPI @ $84.25

Sold AAPl @ $104.00

Bought GOOG @ $742.90

Bought UA @ $39.48

Bought GG @ $18.35

Portfolio CNG CMG GG GOOG JCP SBUX UA VRX

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.28 following are red :

GG UA VRX NTES OLED NXPI TK BABA CSIQ
FSLR SPWR MU CIEN MGA AGU MLNX....

GOOG is reporting AH, here are the expectations :

Sales $20.76 billion, EPS $8.03

Expectations next Q Sales $21.63 billion, EPS $8.35

Expecting a beat in Sales & EPS......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Good luck with the shifting positions. It has been good to pick up beaten names prior to earnings. I am skeptical of GOOG's earnings power and long term plan, but I'm not an expert on it--my skeptical stance and its many moving parts has me usually ignoring it.

I continue the search for interesting companies and charts. I almost bought PRU yesterday on the Fed talking up the economy thereby bringing forward slightly the chances of a rate hike in my opinion. I passed on it because the new fiduciary rule for advisors could impact one of their important revenue streams. I have to wait post-earnings and conference call to make a decision there.

I continue to watch HUN, and have been more closely watching OLN after the earnings debacle. They seem to be in the sweet spots for chemicals despite shaky execution in the latter case.

Now that the RLYP saga is finally over, I've been looking at some biotechs again. LBIO is one of the most interesting, but it's a shame it's run so much recently, and doesn't seem to want to come back at all. I'm hoping a secondary offering gives me a chance.

I considered PNRA yesterday after earnings given gasoline prices are falling so precipitously again, and I had some pretty good experiences with their restaurants on my recent vacation. I paused to let things shake out some and missed a 5% move yesterday into close and today. I may have missed my chance on this one, but I continue to think I'm underexposed to the consumer.

I've been looking at KSS again, especially after getting a new UA contract, and with constant private equity chatter. My thoughts are to wait until after earnings to see if I get a dip--it has run quite a bit also!

CSOD would be a buy on an earnings dip because the biggest value for the company comes from a takeover bid. This particular earnings report shouldn't affect that ultimate price too much so a 10% discount would be attractive.

After a great earnings report, URI is back on my radar. I had forgotten those snippets of special momentum that led me to believe last quarter that the earnings trough was in. Great job for those holding, and I wonder if I'll get another chance. URI is so very much exposed to the economic cycle that it's a bit scary, but good value and good management makes a good trade if the price is right! :)

I continue to watch farm/crop stocks in a variety of places. As a consumable resource in a constantly growing world, I feel like there is a bottom somewhere in here for grain prices. When we do hit the bottom, it could be a multi-year positive cycle. I look at DE in equipment and POT/MOS/AGU/CF in fertilizers. MON was interesting, but the takeover premium really skews the risk/reward now.

These are some of my thoughts right now. It's really important in a grinding bull to be in the "right" spot so I feel the constant pressure. Sometimes I make hasty decisions, but so far the thoughtful decisions have won out and produced some good returns--I'm currently up over 20% this year :)

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Thanks for your detailed take on many ideas, always helpfuil to many.

I always go with what i am familiar with, GOOG happens to be in that camp, also it has not really moved since 2 quarters ago, thus my technical interest and positioning, it is 31% of my exposure.....

Saleem