Sunday, December 4, 2016

Rotation back into technology ?

Last 5 trading days have been on the downside for the most part, for S&P 500, Technology , Sox and Russell......

Here is the performance chart for last 5 trading days since hitting all time highs :

Dow......... down .29%

S&P 500 down 1.00%


Russell down   2.44%


Nasdaq down   2.74%


Sox     down     4.91%


Here is RSI picture :

Nasdaq    46.51

Sox          48.69


S&P 500 58.26

Russell    62.90


Dow        73.28


It is clear from the above statistics, that some sectors are clearly overbought and other sectors are deeply oversold.

Euphoria has set in base metals, financials and steels..... may need a well deserved rest.....

Technology has seen major outflows since election, those who wanted out are out, thus less selling pressure and may actually see buying interest, based on relative valuation.

Investor sentiment is 56% bullish, which is a clear sign that optimism is rampant.

Q4 is known to be strong for technology, which ends in 19 trading days.....

Year end selling may involve quick money made in election favorites, next year capital gains or personal tax may be higher, so more reason for booking gains this year.

YES.... the nature of this market has changed, from heavy technology weighting to equal weight in technology.

Energy looks very attractive after OPEC production cutback...pundits were wrong as usual.

It is always important, to be ahead of the game in rotation.

Here is my portfolio allocation :

CMG    32.56%

BIDU   21.94%

CNQ    18.97%

AMD   11.57%

TWLO   8.66%

WB        6.30%

Sincere thanks to stocktrader for doing daily recap and his buy and sell information. My sister is going through treatment @ Memorial Sloan Kettering in New York since October 15th for Neuroendocrine, I wanted to see her after 2 treatment of embolization in liver. She is recovering nicely, thanks to specialists @ MSK. Visited Richmond VA, South Windsor CT, NYC and Fishkil NY. Met many relatives, i have not seen in 11 years.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem



16 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Glad to hear the recovery is going well after treatment. I hope things continue on a good path!

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Thanks for your message of hope for my sister.She is a fighter and banking on her doctors expertise.

So far looks optimistic , 2 cancer specialist in Richmond told her she has 6 months to live back in early August.

3rd opinion @ MSK in New York changed all that into a workable endocrine treatment and much much longer lifespan. Now we are looking @ potential 10 years.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Wow, what a great outlook after the initial diagnoses. She is in my thoughts today and in the future.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week was a pullback one with the portfolio losing 3.34%, somewhat more than the indices, putting the YTD at +31.8%. The biggest culprit was TRIL (-19.3%) with SPLK (-8.0%) and ZYNE (-7.1% upon sale) also contributing. AKS and SWN (from purchase) were both gained 4+% which helped.

Portfolio: MET(2x), LYB TRIL FDX M, CHK SPLK AKS, SWN CY, cash 2.5%

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi guys,

After TRIL released data this weekend, I think there are more questions than answers about its efficacy. Although shown safe, nobody is really quite sure what the drug can actually do. A likely scenario is that it works well against certain cancers or in combination with other drugs, but this lowers ultimate valuation and will take time and money to figure out.

I unfortunately got too excited about the prospects of this drug and the portfolio has suffered probably more than any one position this year. I am thankful many other stocks worked well this year creating a nice portfolio performance (including RLYP), but I will remember the lessons learned here. I will be paring back the position to speculative grade as price permits.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Thanks for your feedback about my sister's health challenge.

Your portfolio gain of 31%+ is outstanding.

Your detailed research and findings in biotechnology is the reason for a major beat.

BLOG visitors have benefited from your research.

Good luck for 2017 which is only few trading days away.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Trimmed 1/3rd TRIL @ 7.25

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Trimmed a little more TRIL @ 7.38 to get it down to speculative size.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold SWN @ 12.08

There are much better valuation in the general space. I like CHK better, and I am looking to buy some TECK.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought TECK @ 25.87

Great assets, great valuation, great management. What more can you say?

Portfolio: MET(2x), LYB FDX M SPLK CHK, AKS TECK, CY TRIL, cash 6.5%

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with TECK.

Yes good stock and good management.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought a speculative position in PI @ 26.94

With AMZN's announcement today, I think this company's RFID products might be on the cusp of major adoption. Although I know the company in name and have watched it a little since IPO this summer, I don't know in-depth details about it, hence the starter position.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with PI.

I have to read about it.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold the rest of TRIL @ 7.16 (except for a small Friday lot that I need to wait 2 more days).

Now lacking catalysts except for a "surprise" announcement on a partnership or takeover, I thought it best to move on. I tried to look at it like if I was making a decision today to start a position or not, and I definitely wouldn't be.

I thought safety data released by ZYNE today was pretty good and efficacy is less questionable. I might dip my toe back in there if the stock holds the 50 DMA here (12.92) and GWPH remains strong.

I added a little more to PI @ 27.04 as the company is intriguing and the stock was pushed down by a secondary. If that inventory clears, it could have 10-20% quickly.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Trimmed some AKS @ 10.53 to take profits.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Wise moves on AKS and TRIL......profit is good...risk is bad...

Saleem