Since we have completed first week of trading for 2017, it is important to see what technical picture is for many indices and sectors.
It is important to note, nobody is right most of the time, patterns are projected based on recent TAPE action, IF TAPE falters, projections are reversed by the same technicians. This is what a famous charting site is projecting as of today :
RUT UP 24.99%
Dow UP 20.71%
S&P 500 UP 15.90%
XLF UP 13.34%
XLE UP 12.00%
Nasdaq UP 11.37%
GLD Down 23.94%
I concur with Russell outperforming, but totally disagree with Gold projection, I feel that Gold stocks will do very well, like UP 10%+++.
Nasdaq looks about right.
Dow looks very optimistic, i see it performing like Nasdaq 11% area
S&P 500 looks like 13% area.
XLF should be more like 20%
XLE looks OK with oil fluctuating around $60 .....
This analysis is important @ the beginning of the year and needs to be cross checked with your own portfolio.....
I am expecting markets to correct around 5% after inauguration which is 10 trading days away, it is important not to overextend or be overexposed in that environment.
Just because we do not correct @ exactly same day or week, market will remain vulnerable to a pullback.
Broadly diversified portfolio will fare better than concentrated portfolio.
This year, markets will do well as world economy expands its GDP growth, but trade wars may dampen growth.
It is important to monitor political stand on trade.
SO...2017 is starting on a positive note and may end this year as a good one with above average return.
Stock picking may become difficult as rotation keeps going on a daily basis.
Swing trading may be the answer.
Good luck with your own strategy and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
It was a good starting week to the year with the portfolio +2.45% lagging only barely the very hot NASDAQ last week. ZYNE (+17.5%), SPLK (+9.8%), and TECK (+5.0%) were the big winners, while losers were OCLR (-6.8%) and MJCO (-4.6%).
Portfolio: ZYNE HBAN TECK LYB CHK ACIA NEFF SPLK OCLR, TWTR MJCO, cash 6.1%
I tried to catch MU this morning and missed, but I think could be a safe 10% gainer as they've already reported earnings. BABA and HUN were two of the others that caught my interest late last week.
I maybe should have trimmed ZYNE in the high 19s (as I almost did), but I feel the triple-top breakout at $17 was so informative/impressive that I'm staying involved. I've also been tempted to trim NEFF as any Trump infrastructure spending is likely very far away still, but I can't get over that it's pretty cheap even now. I guess I'm staying put there too.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good performance for week one.
MU is ready for higher highs.
BABA looks good technically.
HUN you have followed for a very long time.
Good luck with your strategic moves.
Saleem
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