Sunday, February 26, 2017

Stock market behaving the best in 30 years......

Many standing records are being smashed on Wall Street these days, like Dow being UP 11 straight days since 1987.

All indices are making series of all time highs since August of 2016

There has been sporadic attempt to bring this TAPE down, but it only last 1.5 days, then back to new all time highs.

Even when financials and energy stocks are being sold off, we are making new all time highs.

This TAPE is NOT jumping too much like heydays of Y2K rally in 1999, it is a steady, orderly climb to new all time highs.

Gradual move higher has a tendency to last much longer than frenzied TAPE of 1987 or 1999.

Many traders and institutions are waiting for a major pullback as per their " proprietary high tech algorithm ".....but it has been a long wait since August 2016.....their high frequency software is flashing daily buy signal and doing buying for clients.

When logic does not work, always look to daily TAPE and adjust quickly.

I do get a strong feeling based on TAPE action that we will plod towards many months of new all time highs.

YES..we may have 72 hours of correction / pullback but it is for buying not more selling.

YES..it is OK to book profit and deploy funds in other stocks which is showing "relative value"

SO..we keep going UP and many keep waiting nervously to deploy funds @ these lofty levels.

Valuation is a relative thing, IF you look @ Nasdaq being above 5000 in 2000, 17 years later, we are @ 5845 level now.....a 16.9% move in 17 years or barely 1% move per year.....not a runaway bull market in Nasdaq @ all, but as an asset class it performed the worst.....

The point is, we are just starting to move in the right direction, a running average for stock market is 8% annually....for a very long time return.

SO..instead of worrying about daily ups and downs, just have faith in the long term gains, which is yet to come.

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


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