In the last 4 trading weeks, here is the stat of winning sectors :
Dow UP 2.43%
S&P 500 UP 2.66%
Nasdaq UP 5.44%
SOX UP 8.87%
I have deliberately left out losing sectors like Energy, Gold, Base metals......
The above stat is extremely revealing about the nature of this TAPE, extremely selective.
SO..IF you are not " overweight " in SOX or Nasdaq, you are missing out on this explosive run.
As you can clearly see that much favored safe Dow & S&P 500 has been lagging badly.....
The above stat is for only 4 trading weeks, on an annual basis we are looking @ a gain of roughly 115.31%......on an YTD basis these % can be extrapolated to fetch 51% YTD.....
Many stocks like FB gained 10.65% in 3 trading weeks.....even beating SOX average before pulling back after earning...
AAPL went UP 9.39% in last 7 trading days......
These selective stats are highlighting how narrow the rally has been....
I do not expect these trend to change anytime soon.....
Stock picking has been very simple IF we follow the TAPE....
BUT human nature likes risk and we all tend to try to outsmart wall street wisdom......
Technology as a whole, SOX & FANG in particular are the place to put money and forget it for a while.....
Ongoing bet in energy has not panned out......even with driving season on horizon, it is going to be choppy and erratic @ best, reasons are many, but investing money is flowing out is the main culprit.
Hopefully, it is still not too late to redeploy funds, to benefit from technology driven rally.
We still have 6.5 months or roughly 30 weeks to benefit from a well defined trend.
OH...about making strategic mistakes, even the world best investor, Warren Buffett made a bad bet in IBM for years......
Good luck with your own strategy and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
5 comments:
Hi Stocktrader,
Added 40% FB @ $150.63.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Good luck with more FB!
My last week's recap:
Portfolio: +1.96% (YTD: +14.41%)
Winners: CHK MU BABA URI HUN
Losers: MJCO RCL
Holdings: BABA SPLK RCL ZYNE KBH PLNT MJCO, exposure 49.0%
I took many profits last week, "sell in May and go away"? :) We'll see how the market plays out and I'll be ready to deploy should I see some bargains. If this year has showed us anything, it's that the old economy is dying. I think we need to be thoughtful as disruption on this scale usually involves much volatility.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
@ 14.41% ytd gains, you have done well.
Hopefully my recovery from abyss has started with 1.26% gain last week.
New economy trend started with adoption of computers back in 1980's then Internet. ...rest is history...
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Bought TZA @ 17.34
I'm probably piling too hard onto my pullback thesis, but seasonality works for shorting small caps here, and I think the legislative delay risk adds to the thesis. It also helps free me up mentality to add to long positions when I know I have a hedge on already.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with TZA.
Any thesis which is well thought out is a good thesis.
Saleem
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