China & USA are heading into a very difficult stage of trade negotiations, Trump wants all the concessions which he has outlined, but Chinese team are not going to fall for it, thus a stalemate and it can get worse.
How all this will affect stock market is unknown, Kudlow the pragmatic may lose out to hawk / clones of Trump in the team.
Let us look @ RSI where it is sitting :
Nasdaq 59.50
DOW 60.18
S&P 500 60.52
SOX 61.12
RUT 62.00
IF we look @ RSI, it is showing a picture of bull market, pretty much in 60 area. 60 area is considered overbought in a normal market, we did go well above close to 70 in SOX and it has pulled back.
Other way is to look @ chart where 200 DMA rules as point of resistance or breakout in current scenario.
Based on charts, SOX and DOW are above 200 DMA while Nasdaq & RUT are weakest in relationship to how far they are down from 200 DMA....
To say the least chart is NOT giving a clear picture of strength or weakness, I will say, it is neutral @ best.
SO...based on two analysis verdict is neutral and may go in either direction based on when Trump blinks and rekindles hope for a trade deal with China.
SO...be ready for a trade driven roller coaster ride.
Most FANG stocks are not the leader this time around which is a concern, we need strong leadership stocks which is missing CMG is doing well.
SO...I have been in an " underweight mode " until I feel there is a trade deal which looks imminent.
We have only 14 trading days left for March 1st trade deal deadline, market hates uncertainty.
Good luck with your own strategy and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -1.58% (YTD: -2.19%)
Notable Winners: ORTX HEAR TENB SAIL
Notable Losers: TRIL TWST VICR UXIN LQDA TWTR ANGI
It was another tough week as some big individual losses weighed on the portfolio. I looked back and TRIL, despite being somewhat small, has cost me overall 5% returns in my portfolio since purchasing it again last year. This definitely goes to show that a single position can deteriorate returns if not managed properly. I hope to have learned from that mistake. Otherwise, I remain disappointed in some of my biotech positions, but I'm currently trying to find stocks with long runways for growth with unique businesses as world economies probably continue on a slower path despite efforts to ease that slowdown by governments and world banks.
Holdings: ORTX URI HEAR MLNX SAIL TWTR TENB VICR ANGI TWST GRTS NIU UXIN TRIL, cash 0.0%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down 3.14%
YTD Gain 78.35%
Saleem
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