Sunday, April 5, 2020

UP or Down in US stock market?

Most traders are fixated on where US stock market is headed......

Dan Nathan is 1000% sure we are heading way lower....like 1600 in S&P 500....

Whole Fast Money gang is super bearish  and is cheering on Dan Nathan for speaking out while others are going round and round around negativity......

I find negativity on CNBC very healthy.......

This allows me to be more focus on selecting or having the-best stock going forward.....

For me .....where S&P 500 is headed is not the most important focus....it is where stocks are going to be.....

Bearishness keeps many stocks from making new all time highs....thus gives you a chance to buy now......

SO thank you Dan Nathan and his comrades for keeping stocks cheaper...while we all accumulate them.....

Oil may be under pressure @ open ...again it is a chance to be patient IF you have exposure there as OPEC has delayed meeting until Wednesday instead of Monday....not an earth shattering delay of 48 hours...BUT pundits will call this extremely bearish 48 hours????

Gold will vault on Oil meeting delay, thus an opportunity to make money.....

Corona Virus is playing havoc worldwide...may put pressure @ open....thus another chance to buy on weakness.....

More negatives for Monday means add to existing position or buy new ideas...

Markets will always do what it needs to do, so no point in worrying about that...focus on stocks.....

OH....VIX is telling a different story, it has tumbled from 85.47 to 46.80 even on Down Friday...may be it knows more than Dan Nathan......

Good luck with your own ideas and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

15 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

The most comforting fact for bulls is that so many people expect a retest of the lows. My inclination is to lean bearish here given what should be extremely poor economic and earnings data this month, but you can't ignore the serious negative sentiment (contraindicative) combined with pretty decent price action - I will likely remain highly exposed to stocks given my conviction in my favorite names.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

It is always popular to be extremely bearish after any crash, a pattern I have observed @ each crash.....a definite sign that we have all the negativity factored in.....thus a grind higher with usual UP / Down / UP / Down...which we are going through daily.....

Good luck to you and all readers of BLOG.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -0.27% (YTD: -11.79%)

Many stocks moved up and down together last week again as we saw quarter rebalancing, so the majority of my gains came from opportunistic switching. Although I had some poor buy entries late in the week, I hope those stocks perform better after being beaten up.

Holdings: SPLK CHGG LITE ACMR KRA AVGO DHI EHTH WDC FSLY, cash 0.0%

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Last week Down 15.91%

YTD loss 53.69%

Saleem

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Added 75% JD @ $40.80

Bought CNX @ $6.79

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Good luck with the new picks! It definitely seems like the market is getting friendlier to longs.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

YES.....Bulls are happy$$$

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold KRA @ 8.66 avg

Despite their production continuing, I worry about end demand.

I think I'll stick to my more favorite technology stocks.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Sold CIEN @ $43.90

Added 40% ROKU @ $86.32

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Good luck with the new moves - the environment is changing so quickly, it's hard to know the next winners...

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Good day to book some profit and add to better relative valuation....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold EHTH @ 131.55

I realize that I don't understand the push/pull of this stock as well as I should for this environment. I'll look for something I understand better.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought BAND @ 70.97

I keep looking at BAND's chart and business and think it could be a good play here. I'm going to try it again...

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Bought HUYA @ 16.35

It's a story I just can't ignore even if it's a Chinese stock. I think Tencent's increased stake to over 50% in these times signals strength.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...



Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with BAND & HUYA...

Saleem