US stock market has been under lot of pressure in September.
COVID-19 lack of vaccine is a factor
NO stimulus deal is another factor
US dollar getting strong is a factor
US Economy getting weaker is a factor
2nd wave of Corona Virus infection is a factor
US election is adding to uncertainty is a factor
US China trade fiasco is a factor
Oil staying near $40 is another factor
Strength of US Dollar negatively impacts other currencies, commodities
IF we look @ all of the above, no wonder we are marking time and searching for support in US stock market.
Most of the indices are below 50 in RSI, hovering in mid 40 for most
SO..technicals are weak as every indices or sector are below 50 DMA
TAN is the only sector which near highs above 50 & 200 DMA, solar stocks are on fire...only sector which i can see bucking the trend. TAN RSI @ 64.02 which is very strong.
XLE is in deep trouble as it is below 50 & 200 DMA....even further below than 200 DMA and RSI @ unheard of 26.74.....
Market may make further progress this week as selling seems exhausted.
Major indices have staged 2 day back to back gains, which is a confirmation of reversal.
Most TV technicians are extremely bearish and are not satisfied with 11% pullback in major indices, they are positioned for 20% slump.
I personally do not see 20% total pullback under current scenario.
Economy is chugging along OK and ready to join other struggling group with quick COVID-19 test being done for masses and results within minutes, this will allow general public to feel comfortable to go in any group situation with proper distance protocol in place.
SO stay diversified, maybe there is big gains in laggards.
Good luck with your own thesis and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -0.03% (YTD: +73.12%)
Notable Leaders: SQ CHGG PINS HUBS AVLR
Notable Laggards: PSNL GM VICR HUYA
It was a very mixed week, for both my portfolio and the market. I had 8 stocks +/- 5%, and the Nasdaq was up 1% while the Russell 2000 was -4%. Late in the week I sold a few stocks and put on a TZA hedge because I fear additional outbreaks and election uncertainty. Liquidity is lower in many stocks than it has been in a while, and that's often a prelude to a larger decline. I don't see a true reason for institutions to commit much capital in October, and that should disproportionately hurt the small caps. I continue to believe in many of my longer stories however, so I'm not getting too negative here, just prudently cautious.
Holdings: TZA PINS EAT HUBS SQ HCAT MTCH QRVO PLAN ELF TENB BHVN CHGG, cash 0.0%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down 5.89%
YTD UP 35.71%
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Added 100% FCX @ $15.55.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Good luck with more FCX!
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold HCAT @ 36.43 to take profits
Sold PLAN @ 63.43 to take profits
Added to TZA @ 17.10
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
NICE profit within days$$$$$
Good luck with more TZA
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Added to TZA @ 16.95
I'm up to 31.8% of my portfolio being this hedge, hoping to really reduce my general market exposure to mostly zero. I like my companies, but I don't like the market here.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrade,
Good luck with more more and more TZA....
Any number between 0 & 100 is good....depends on how a trader feels!
Saleem
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