Sunday, October 4, 2020

US stock market faces new challenges....

 Stock market has faced many challenges and was trying to digest and discount all challenges.

Beside election, 2nd wave of COVID-19, now we have another immediate challenge which market faced on Friday.

New challenge is health of US President Donald Trump, reaction to that challenge was sharp but was managed by close.

Friday saw a shift in market where technology took a severe pullback.

Friday also saw rotation into laggard travel related stocks

S&P 500 & Nasdaq is below 50 DMA does not give a healthy technical picture.

Monday could be challenging for US market depending on health update of US President

Question remains how to navigate a very difficult and challenging market going forward

Earnings will take center stage starting from week of 12th November

Earnings should be good for most technology and stay home stocks

Travel related stocks will continue to burn cash and will show substantial losses

Real question is, how much of good or bad earnings are already baked in

It is never easy to make money or predict direction of market in short term

My recommendation is to underweight stay home stocks as they may have overshot already

Contrary play like travel related stocks should be overweight as they may have been pushed down too much

October is a challenging month most of the time

Stay close to news flash and react accordingly

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


7 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: +0.12% (YTD: +73.33%)
Notable Leaders: PINS SQ MTCH CHGG QRVO BHVN
Notable Laggards: TZA FAZ EAT HUBS GRWG VICR

My portfolio underperformed fairly significantly due to the short hedging I had in place. The uncertainty surrounding the election surprisingly cleared up, and that sets the stage for a run into year end. I think the most interesting part may be a potential rotation into value stocks as the economy is expected to get boosted in a democratic sweep. Either way, I feel like stocks generally will perform well as earnings should impress given the cost-cutting measures many companies have taken, propelling earning power into next year.

Holdings: PINS EAT GM HUBS FAZ MTCH QRVO HCAT ELF TENB USCR VICR BHVN CHGG GRWG, cash 0.0%

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Last Week Flat

YTD UP 35.71%

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold CHGG @ 72.77 on re-opening
Sold TZA @ 14.06 on removal of hedging

Bought LYFT @ 27.81 on re-opening
Bought LITE @ 78.31 on good optical news

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold TENB @ 38.35

I feel uncomfortable with a pure WFH play in an increasingly competitive industry.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with LYFT & LITE

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold HCAT @ 36.02

It seems to be at the intersection of a few headwinds including questions surrounding health care in a democratic world and a potential rotation into value stocks. I think it best to stay out for now.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

I think your analysis is on the right track.

Good luck with rethink & redeployment of funds$$$$$

Saleem