New year has started, as with any new year there are many predictions for US stock market in 2021.
There is a general unease among many seasoned analysts as to where we go from here....
Most expect a modest gain in 2021...
Lowest prediction is S&P 500 is we may close in 3600 area a decline of 241 points or negative 6.2% from Friday's close.
Optimist are saying we close around 4000 a gain of 158 points or positive 4.11%
Most wall street are stuck with a gain from 8% to 12%...
Most optimistic number I have seen is a gain of 20% for 2021 from famed outperformer Cathie Woods of Ark Investments whose ETF gained an stunning 140%+++ in 2020....
I know most of the predictions for S&P 500 is not even close to Nasdaq 40%++ in 2020
For the record S&P 500 was an underperformer in 2020 also, it started 2020 @ 3230.78 and ended 2020 @ 3732.04...a gain of 501.28 points or 15.62%......
So an average of 8% gain in S&P 500 in 2021 will be almost half of 2020.
Nasdaq stunning gain in 2020 by cloud / stay home stocks / solar / vaccine related can be described as rare phenomenon.
Nasdaq / technology has outperformed for many years in aggregate but has slumped hard in post Y2K era also.....
I expect Technology to beat other averages this year also.....
Most technicians / analysts are predicting small caps to outperform in 2021...
Financials / Industrials / Commodities / Energy are heavily favored for 2021......
Obviously most traders are not used to focus in highlighted area for 2021......
It will be wise to pay attention to where money Managers are piling their funds to outperform...
2020 like 1999 was an aberration not a real investing scenario where 400% gains came for many traders / investors....
It will be a huge mistake to keep looking @ 2020 for any direction to where money can be made....
Please look @ potential gains in new sectors.....
There is a fear that 2020 winners can slump badly in 2021.....
Good luck with your own thesis and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
11 comments:
Hi Stocktrader,
Bought BB in pre market @ $19.50.....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Good luck with BB - it's been a rocket ship lately!
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Last week: +3.86% (YTD: +15.61%)
Notable Leaders: SPWR AVAV YAYO GM SUMO SNAP EAT
Notable Laggards: COTY LITE SHOO GRWG MSTR
It was a mixed week in terms of winners/losers, but the gains from the winners powered the portfolio higher again. I have started to notice some weakness underneath the market, and I think it is tiring from all the supply on the market from IPOs, SPACs, secondary offerings, and insider selling. To this end, I felt it prudent to pare back some exposure to the markets and allow for a digestion period. Some stocks feel vulnerable in the 10-20% range depending on how far they've run already. This strategy has *not* worked for 10 months now, but my balanced and GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach has served me well for years, so I can't abandon it now.
Holdings: TPR SUMO GM EAT FDX SNAP COTY YAYO, cash 54.3%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down .61%
YTD Gain 9.77%
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Sold EAT @ 63.52 to take profits
I am worried about food costs and lack of stimulus in addition to a heavy up move already.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Bought TZA @ 5.08 to protect the remaining portfolio
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold TPR @ 34.34 to take profits
Stocktrader
Hi SAleem,
Sold a little over half of YAYO >= 2,15, but the rest didn't sell.
Trying to get rid of my most highly speculative positions.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Added more TZA @ 4.91 as the froth bubbles over.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with TZA....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
The rest of the YAYO sell offer filled, final price 2.1665 avg
Stocktrader
Post a Comment