US stock market has not given this clear signal for a major bull market since 1999 for Y2K stampede.
There was tremendous fear back then as to what will happen to all computers because of famous four digits 2000.....
Lot of selling took place as all computers were facing imminent problems due to 1999 turning into 2000...midnight was feared the most on the eve of Y2K....
As we all know that it was the biggest bull run which took place in whole 1999 many stocks went into valuation which made no sense, NO SALES ZERO HOPE for profit all valuations were based on eyeballs.
Most were technology companies....many went bust many survived...
NOW
Due to COVID-19 many industries or sectors came to a full stop like ZERO business like cruise lines...many business went to 10% of business in shutdown around the world like Airlines, Casinos, Hotels, Ride Sharing....
This was a horrendous drop in business for many many Industries.....
SO...NOW we are getting back to normalcy in all of those above mentioned Industries.....
SO from major losses and raised financing to survive....these industries are going to be profitable from NOW to 2nd half of 2022.....
This slow improvement in profitability will show in major averages going forward.....
All major averages have already made series of new highs, those were the result of most Technology companies became mega success story of @ home trend.....
NOW the trend is reversing.....technology is taking a back seat while restart economy stocks will be in vogue for many years.....
Rethink your strategy and allocate appropriately....
Good luck with your own comfort level!
I am away for 1 week to meet my mother in Michigan USA, hopefully Stocktrader1996 will update his thought, strategy and trades under message of this page. His rationale for all buys & sell is based on solid research and timing. Have know him since heady days of Yahoo message boards which was bigger than current well advertised wallstreet page / message board...those were the days of 1996...thus his handle reflects that!
BLOG does NOT give buys or sell.
Saleem
18 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: +2.88% (YTD: +42.80%)
Notable Leaders: KRUS PLAY MNST LITE GRWG
Notable Laggards: QRVO ESTC
In a big up week for the averages, the portfolio matched those gains. There continues to be a few small blowups in prior hot stocks, but otherwise the market is marching forward day after day. Given it is approaching mid-Nov, we might just see this pattern continues as taking capital gains this close to year end rarely happens. There might be some "buyer's strike" days, and those would be the opportunity to buy if you are underinvested. For now, stronger stocks will keep getting stronger, and look for breakouts from bases!
Holdings: SNAP ZIP CHK LITE HCAT PINS AA AGCO ESTC PLAY KRUS GRWG MNST ZENV BMEA GMBL, cash 6%
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Bought FSLR @ 113.76 on the post-earnings pullback
Hope you have a great time in MI this week!
Stocktrader
Stocktrader1996
Last week UP 6.35%
YTD UP 10.73%
Thanks for your input while I am away!
Saleem
Monday 11/8:
The market closed higher on the heels of the infrastructure bill passage and fresh drug news from REGN to combat COVID-19. Continued inflows after the strong jobs data and PFE's antiviral news from Friday also contributed. TSLA's decline didn't stop the buying in technology as AMD surged higher after booking a fresh pact with FB to supply chips for datacenters.
The $VIX ended higher for the third day as traders protect against a selloff after 8 consecutive days of gains for the S&P, longest since 1997. After hours movers were mixed with PYPL the headline decliner on a revenue miss, but RBLX powered higher on strong user metrics. Overnight futures are seeing red as investors take some profits.
Tuesday 11/9
The market closed lower finally to snap a long winning streak. Many high fliers lost altitude in a profit taking wave that hit the likes of TSLA and PYPL very hard. Inflation data, while in line with expectations, reminded investors that the Federal Reserve is knocking on the tapering/rate hike door, and Fed speakers in the last week have indicated as much. A modest surprise was the outsized drop in the 10-yr yield, but it was a curve flattening day as the shorter end didn't move much - this is a signal of slower expected growth in the out years.
After hours movers were again mixed, but steep declines in UPST and COIN marked the tone, with DASH getting the positive nod based on a strategic overseas acquisition. The RIVN IPO priced strongly after the bell, but did suck up $12B in trader/investor liquidity due to its large size - watch the price action tomorrow to signal if the hot stocks have become tired for now. We are still very overbought and it's possible we could have a few days of weakness until cash coffers have properly replenished. Overnight futures are moderately lower.
Wednesday 11/10
Hot, hot, hot! Inflation data signaled the highest price rises since 1990 and easy comparisons for the next 3-4 months suggest huge numbers to continue. This moved up the market expectations of rate hikes next year, and the market sold off accordingly. The NASDAQ was hit hardest (-1.7%) due to its long-dated asset components that are disproportionately affected by higher rates and inflation. Despite high fliers everywhere seeing more profit taking, the RIVN IPO was well received. The 10-yr jumped +.13 higher to close at 1.56%.
After hours were a mixed bag with DIS BMBL BYND seeing declines, but AFRM SOFI ZIP trading higher. Futures were mixed with some rebound in the NASDAQ indicated. It remains to be seen how much selling must still occur, but year-end effects remain powerful in holding sellers at bay and the last two days were more due to lack of buying interest than anything. Look for price action to stabilize before jumping in.
Thank you StockTrader_1996 for updating the thread and providing analysis while stocks100 is out. Think you to both of you for sharing your thoughts and ideas always!!!
Explorer1
Thursday 11/11
A closed bond market brought modest relief to the indices as most closed higher and total advancers led decliners over 4 to 3. Inflation beneficiaries like materials, chips, and energy did best, but consumer discretionary also participated thanks to good reports from TPR and DDS. Good earnings reports are still being rewarded assuming the growth path ahead looks steady and there wasn't a massive run-up prior to reporting - this is indicative of bull market action.
Nothing in after hours was very notable, but overnight futures are indicated higher. Tomorrow's action, although a Friday, might signal whether the selling has passed. Another strong breadth rebound day would give me confidence that the year-end run is on track. High fliers might still see profit taking, but this is normal rotation in a bullish backdrop.
explorer said...
Thank you StockTrader_1996 for updating the thread and providing analysis while stocks100 is out. Think you to both of you for sharing your thoughts and ideas always!!!
***********
Thank you for the kind words, and I'm just glad I could help out Saleem during his very brief absences in the midst of many, many years of daily analysis!
Hi guys,
Sold MNST @ 92.13 on high valuation and increasing competition
Bought MNDY @ 358.58 on novel platform for building applications at the employee level
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sold FSLR @ 112.87 on sluggish earnings and potentially favorable rulings towards the poly-Si players
Bought DDD @ 25.75 on the pullback and what I thought were decent earnings
Added to GMBL @ 5.71 on the drop
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sold PINS @ 45.79 to take small profits
At this point, with user growth stalling, it's merely a takeover play and that may or may not happen. I think the e-commerce angle is compelling, but progress has been slow.
Bought BMBL @ 36.12
I think the innovative CEO will branch into other networking besides dating and I think that could drive significant upside.
Added to GRWG @ 23.42
With the worst behind the company in terms of headwinds, I think this sets up well for next year as we get some kind of easier national policy with regards to cannabis.
Stocktrader
Friday 11/12
It was another strong day in the market with most sectors participating and positive breadth 5 to 4, despite the lowest consumer confidence numbers in a decade (even lower than pandemic lows??) on inflation fears, and a record 4.4M job quitters as the labor market remained historically strong. It's a little bit hard to reconcile the economic data with the price action today, but I think it's safe to say buyers are looking for their favorite stocks if they drop at all.
Next week brings retail and tech earnings, with two of the biggest being WMT and NVDA to set the tone for their respective sectors. As we approach the full holiday season (Thanksgiving-New Year's) in the US, the propensity to sell winners diminishes greatly, which usually results in a grinding year-end up move for positive YTD stocks. Barring some catastrophe, I suspect this trend continues this year.
Hi Saleem,
Last week: +4.21% (YTD: +48.81%)
Notable Leaders: KRUS ZENV ESTC ZIP AA BMEA GRWG
Notable Laggards: GMBL PLAY HCAT CHK
In a digestion week for the overall market, some of my stocks made great gains, powering the portfolio to a new all-time high. Fears of inflation seem strangely ignored, but I think that confusion is leading to many investors getting left out consistently, which then leads to catch-up inflows on any dip. This week sees more earnings from retail and tech, but then we coast through the holiday season into year end. Winners stay winners during this time, so any dip is buyable.
Holdings: SNAP KRUS ZIP AA LITE CHK ESTC GRWG AGCO HCAT BMBL DDD PLAY MNDY ZENV BMEA GMBL, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold BMBL @ 38.40
Bought RBLX @ 104.81
Switching to relative strength names into year end.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold HCAT @ 49.50
Bought half IONQ @ 20.47
Bought half BLNK @ 42.74
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold DDD @ 25.11
Sold GRWG @ 22.25
I tried selling these all morning and they just kept dropping :(
Bought AXON @ 177.72 on great earnings and story
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Trimmed SNAP @ 53.87
Trimmed KRUS @ 72.55
Bought GM @ 62.36
Bought ELY @ 30.00
I continue to make relative strength moves for year-end float up.
Stocktrader
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