IF you look @ chart of any US stock market indices / index, it is a clear picture of downtrend.
US stock market has not seen bear market since 2007 housing boom.......
SO it is 15 years since US stock market saw housing collapse and took to bear market low in 2009
everything saw its lowest level back then..
It is always good to look back @ history to find a comparable situation.....
Real comparison to this market lies in Y2K bubble.....when companies with no sales and no EPS were the darling of daytraders and institution.....
Similar situation happened with ARKK portfolio of so-called innovators & disruptors.....only thing they are disrupting is shareholders equity in ARKK....
Stay @ home became a ticket to recklessness in equity choices....
ZOOM & ROKU among others became darling overnight for quadrupling in stocks....
NOW...every concept is crashing down to earth......
Lately energy stocks is being touted for $100+++ by none other than Goldman Sachs....
When bear market comes to wall street, everything comes to a very realistic valuation including energy stocks...
What I am really pointing out, there is nowhere to hide when equities take it into chin.....
SO....IF we have an oversold bounce, sell as much as you can and be very small ...so you can be stress free and can sleep well....
"TAPE is really messy "
Do not fight this TAPE...
FED is dealing with inflation...but equities are dealing with profitability which is going down & down...
All costs are jumping UP
EPS are coming down " fast and furious "
Remember freight cost, remember highest labor cost, remember higher commodity cost....inflation has given its verdict worldwide.....wake up fast
Rising input cost equals low low EPS.....
SO quit looking @ 10 year rate, they may have peaked BUT inflation is just getting warmed UP
Inflation may bring bear market as it directly affect earnings & buying power.....
Good luck with your own thesis and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -13.43% (YTD: -21.25%)
Notable Leaders: none
Notable Laggards: all
In my worst week for the portfolio ever, the selling was so fierce and prevalent that it feels fairly climactic to me. The Fed meeting this week overshadows nearly all earnings reports, and most experts expect the Fed to remain very hawkish and vigilant against the inflation bout. I do wonder if the Fed will attempt to assuage slightly and say they don't want to hurt the good economy, which would probably provide some relief from the fierce selling. At this point though, any "hope" is foolish, so it's important to be in companies where you can justify the valuation in any kind of rate environment. I've tried to do this, and am mostly comfortable with positioning at this time - it just requires some patience now...
Holdings: PINS VERI FDX PLAY ZIP ENPH UPST CXM USER ZENV BMEA GMBL, cash 0%
Good luck to everyone in these difficult times!
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down 7.63%
YTD Down .24%
Saleem
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