It has been since mid February that we can all breathe a sigh of relief for US stock market and world markets @ large.
Why US stock market has reacted so positively since Tuesday......a question we need to analyze first...
IS Ukraine war over...NO
IS Hyper inflation gone ....NO
IS COVID-19 over....NO
IS Fed done with tightening....NO
BUT all of the above has some indication / assessment that some progress is being made or anticipate soon....
Ukraine war is seeking direct negotiation...a good start
Inflation is raging.....but hopes are high that Last 1/4 of 2022 may see some relief
COVID-19 is waning in North America , Europe and Asia, only China and few other countries have seen surge AGAIN....
FED has started its tightening move already and 6 more to go....NO UNCERTAINTY there...
The above improvement / shift / resolution was enough for US stock market to come out of its slump with renewed vigor.....
Technical improvement is so strong among few indices that I am very surprised @ its strength...
XLF, XLE, XLB are all above key 50 & 200 DMA...a stunning reversal for XLF...
S&P 500, DOW & Nasdaq are all above 50 DMA...a stunning reversal from weakness to major strength...
IWM & TAN are also above 50 DMA...IWM or Russell 2000 is a key index to monitor which is also showing technical strength.
SOX is very near 50 DMA and ready to cross above.....
To me these technical development is hallmark of "tide has turned "
Those who are skeptical of this market, has to factor " technical strength " before placing any bets against strong segment of this turnaround.
There is " time to be bearish " then there is " time to be bullish " we must know when to be in those camp.
SO...place your bets accordingly....
Good luck with your own analysis.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
6 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: +7.45% (YTD: -10.32%)
Notable Leaders: UPST TWLO SNAP VERI GLBE
Notable Laggards: BMEA TZA
It was a vicious rally week as much of the short term bad news had been priced in over a number of weeks. The portfolio performed roughly in line with the averages, and I think the question is where we go from here. A mantra to remember is "don't fight the Fed" and it isn't even our Fed this time, it's global central banks raising rates and removing liquidity. I fear my highest growth stocks will struggle to find valuation footing in this environment, so I am carefully balancing ideas with a strong TZA hedge. I am also concerned that consumer purchasing power has been seriously impaired by high energy/fuel/food prices, without much ability to moderate from these levels. Maybe I am late to the game by hedging now, but it seems to me there's not a catalyst to move the market much higher from here. I'll stay balanced between good companies and prudent cautiousness for now.
Holdings: TNA(28%) DE SNAP VERI ENPH PLAY LITE UPST TWLO ZENV BMEA, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold TWLO @ 158.00 to take profits
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Bought more TZA @ 30.10 as the market continues to rise
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week UP 10.39%
YTD UP 9.71%
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
A stellar performance and year so far - congrats!! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your appreciative note!
Good luck with more TZA....
Saleem
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