US stock market is displaying a pattern of an entrenched bear market TAPE
UP 1 day
DOWN 3 days
There are too many unknown in world economies to even get an handle as to the direction or imminent solution.
Hyper inflation is getting a hold worldwide
Most input costs are going UP & UP
Profit is most uncertain when consumer has to make choices between getting groceries vs many non-essentials which can be delayed indefinitely.
Electronics & technology may be the biggest victim of this essential switch.
Interest rates are moving UP faster than anticipated, no more no increase in rates till 2023 or 2024, It IS all happening in early 2022...how is that for accuracy of guidance.....
Think tanks had to redo their projections which keeps coming down.....
Most optimistic group is analysts of technology companies...they keep singing their old tune, higher and higher earnings projection while reality is exactly opposite, guidance from most companies are downbeat....tell that to analysts.,,.they take that news as all bad news is priced in....
I see much more downside to technology BUT costs are increasing for all companies.....
Under current environment only the best management with keen eye on all cost and challenges will be the exception....
Not only it is a stock picker environment but to pick the-best in every sector will be more than what anybody can pinpoint.....
Looks like it may be a long drawn out bear market which needs closest monitoring but loads of patience & conviction.....
Please do not underestimate longevity of a bear market, I went through my very first one from 1973 to 1977...with 4 stocks which went nowhere but down down & down for 4 years...yes I was well diversified...Massey Ferguson, Wheelabrator Fry, Royal Industries can remember only 3...they served a good purpose in Canada in 1974, got me a car loan as collateral with a bank.....
SO....please pay lot more attention to your stocks, old formula does not work, It is always a combination of lot of new learning and monitoring....
Good luck with your own strategy & comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: +0.14% (YTD: -6.54%)
Notable Leaders: PLAY ZENV DE
Notable Laggards: SNAP UPST LITE VERI
The volatile market week was moderated for the portfolio by the presence of the large hedge position. As we dive fully into earnings season, I look forward to selecting more winners to add to the portfolio despite hesitancy about the direction of the economy and aggressiveness from the Fed. The average consumer is increasingly strapped by extremely high food and energy prices and I'll be watching consumer spending numbers for evidence of an extended slowdown. The Fed's hands may be tied in this circumstance with rate and balance sheet normalization a must in order to stem longer term inflationary issues.
Holdings: TZA(32%) DE PLAY ENPH SNAP ZENV LITE VERI CXM UPST BMEA, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week UP 4.59%
YTD UP 10.57%
Saleem
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