Sunday, May 1, 2022

US stock market ready to bounce.....?

 US stock market is ready to bounce......?

Headline may be surprising to most, but I view US stock market from sentiment point of view....

Sentiment in US stock market is reaching level seen @ bottom of 2008......14 years ago

Most traders & investors are " deeply disgusted " with Tape action .....

When everyone is " throwing up "...It Is the-best contrary indicator.....

It IS time to be most aggressive in US stock market.......

We are deeply oversold

We closed near low of the day on most days.....

RSI reading are in deep oversold territory.....here are some sample :

S&P 500 RSI 34.98

Nasdaq RSI 35.01

DOW RSI 37.93

SOX RSI 39.22

IWM RSI 34.32 ( Russell 2000 )

TAN RSI 35.94 ( Solar )

XLE RSI 46.43 ( Energy )

XLB RSI 42.72 ( Materials )

JETS RSI 50.51 ( Airlines )

ARKK RSI 30.25 ( Cathie WOOD ETF )

SO for me ARKK was a screaming buy in a most aggressive portfolio as it is down down 26% in month of April alone ..it was $155 only a year ago now $47.19 cents a drop of 69.55%......whose number 1 holding is TSLA, 2nd ZM & 3rd is COIN......In my opinion, it was the best way to own top 10 holdings of ARKK as they are very expensive to own individually....Top 10 holdings account for 49.20% of total asset....

YES ..you can have your own mini version of aggressive portfolio as per your own comfort level.....

Most of the issues are deeply discounted by Wall Street including 50 basis hike on Wednesday...War in Ukraine is not letting up.....Inflation may be peaking.... Supply chain may be peaking.....

I have found that when extreme pessimism rules, it is the-best time to have your best ideas into play....

Never waste time in catching exact bottom, It may be there same day when market makes a strong V bottom.....

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -1.35% (YTD: -9.28%)
Notable Leaders: CXM TZA
Notable Laggards: most everything else

In another brutal week for the markets, the portfolio experienced less losses due to the large hedge position. However, this is completely gone now and the portfolio will float with the full volatility of the markets. Investor sentiment is sitting at historically low levels, and that should provide some backdrop for price support as things inevitably don't turn out as poorly as everyone now fears. Some earnings from smaller growth companies remain, and so far I haven't experienced a major disappointment - I hope this trend continues. Market like these require a nimbleness and conviction - I hope to have both in coming months.

Holdings: ENPH PLAY LYFT GTLB PATH SNAP BMBL CXM MNDY LITE ZENV UPST IONQ BMEA, cash 0%

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Last week Down 2.44%

YTD UP 10.83%

Saleem