Monday, September 5, 2022

US stock market going through " pain ".....

 Fed wanted to inflict pain on household and businesses by raising rates to unbearable level impacting buying power....

Stock market believed every word uttered by Fed Chief in last Fed statement & Q & A post fed meeting and repeated in Jackson Hole remark...

SO we all are feeling pain through US stock market reaction via slumping indices...

Have we reached maximum pain yet......NOT according to bear market history 

Based on past lows of bear market, we have another 100 points south in S&P 500 ..which is in the range of another slump to 3900 area...

Will we go there is another issue as Fed may react prior to another real pounding of averages...

IF we go down another 20%+++ It may become " unbearable pain " which may not be the objective of Fed policy just normal pain may be enough...

Unbearable pain or normal pain which remains undecided implies booking quick profit on any technical oversold bounce...

Bear markets are extremely painful IF technicals are violated.....

SO be pro-active in your composition of portfolio

Booking singles in profit may work, though it IS hard to come by these days.

We are due for an oversold bounce which may last 1.5 day, so get your sell button ready wherever it may work.

Except for Solar where FSLR, CSIQ are are ready for a breakout.....

Rest of the stocks are in ICU..

SO be very careful with this TAPE...all is NOT well.....

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -4.87% (YTD: -13.11%)
Notable Leaders: SNAP
Notable Laggards: GTLB ENVX MTTR IONQ

It was brutal week for the market and the portfolio with growth stocks taking the brunt of the beating given the sharp rise in treasury yields. The tough talk from the Fed combined with some slowing in economic activity has taken its toll, but I think it's not all as bad as the market is suggesting right now. Inflation peaked over the summer and we continue to see numbers roll over, including hopefully another data point next week. Given the trough in inflation marked the top of the euphoric sentiment, I am expecting the peak in inflation to represent the bottom in depressive sentiment, and we should be able to work constructively higher in stock prices, albeit with sometimes fierce interim down moves. Companies that have been able to navigate the landscape either through current or future planning should do well because ultimately earnings and stock price are a reflection of adjustments and execution in tougher times. I look forward to earnings from GTLB and PLAY this week in the portfolio.

Holdings: PLAY SNAP LYFT FLL SYM GTLB BMEA UPWK IONQ ENVX MTTR ZENV, cash 0%

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Last week Down 4.44%

YTD Down 11.76%

Saleem