It has been almost 2 years since US stock market started its topping pattern.
After 2 years of relentless selling, this bear party is not over.....
Indices are experiencing turbulence more frequently than before, this may be a sign of capitulation is far from over.....
Using Fed's terminology, more pain to come and frequently than before.
Everyday is becoming a watch & suffer story as close is extremely weak....
S&P 500 is displaying that support is not found yet.
Most predictions are in the range of 3200 to 3500......for S&P 500
My gut tells me round number of 3000 can be breached easily
I am looking for support in 2900 area......
Worst target possible is as low as 2200.....
Support is far from where we are as of Friday.....
% more loss can be as low as 11% more to come or as far as 38% more downside.....
Bear market can be more painful than what most players may be ready for, thus extreme caution is warranted.....
Look @ bear market from DOW 1000 to low reached several years later after almost 30% decline
Looks like something needs to break like UK situation or something else before we get climactic selloff
NOW to something more cheery, XLE or energy @ 54.72 RSI is the strongest group in my universe. XLE is the only sector which IS above 50 DMA & 200 DMA...technically very strong....
TAN or Solar stocks are the-worst with RSI of 28.99, remember how they were the strongest only few weeks ago......
Be prepared for long haul before we see the light.
Bottom line is, manage your risk prudently, by not adding exposure.
Good luck with your own take on markets.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -5.84% (YTD: -26.05%)
Notable Leaders: SYM PLAY
Notable Laggards: GTLB ENVX UPWK ZENV IONQ
After two weeks of stabilization, the bottom fell out of the portfolio again, with the bear having another feast on prices. I think back and should have better followed the "don't fight the Fed" mantra, and calls for inflation rolling over has not yet been seen in the data - a key indicator for what actually will turn things around. The only comfort at this point is that sentiment is universally bearish and prices have fallen so much that selecting the right companies will produce significant long term value, but getting those calls right is challenging at best right now. I look forward to earnings season to actually do some company analysis as we looks towards better days eventually.
Holdings: SYM PLAY IONQ ENVX SNAP FLL GTLB LYFT UPWK BMEA ZENV, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down 5.51%
YTD Down 21.53%
Saleem
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