Sunday, November 27, 2022

US stock market to rally despite Fed Hawkish talk....

 US stock market has paid its dues of minimum of 11 months of base building in S&P 500 and maximum 12 months in Nasdaq.

Technology stocks like DOCU has been slumping for 15 months

PLTR has been slumping for 22 months

CHWY has been slumping for 24 months

NVTA has been slumping for 25 months

I am sure you get the picture of how long and painful this slump has been

COVID-19, WAR, Hyper inflation, highest Interest rates in decade has inflicted unbearable pain for many, PAIN was one of the objective of Fed......

Since we have gone through many economic challenges as listed above, US stock market will not slump with any Fed hawkish speech or policy statement because its all baked in.

When I look @ my universe of sectors / index 7 out of 10 are behaving technically strong, all above 50 & 200 DMA, first time in a long time....

When in doubt always look for how internals are behaving as NOISE is loudest near lows or breakout

We are on the verge of a major breakout in many many sectors which I am going to highlight below.

DOW is the strongest near breakout

RUSSELL 2000 , TAN, XLE, XLF, XLB, JETS are all above 50 & 200 DMA.

When I look @ RSI following are displaying strength :

DOW             71.21

XLB              69.45

XLF              67.32

TAN             64.87

JETS           63.90

Nasdaq       55.04

As you can see Nasdaq is the weakest of all even after 2 years of slumping action, lot of room to outperform in short order.

Please look @ your portfolio and see where they stand in terms of strength or weakness.

I have jacked up my technology exposure big time as I am expecting it to play catch up.

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

Here is my portfolio weighting :

ARKK          60.31%

MGM           19.37%

LSPD            8.47%

PLTR            7.17%

SOL              3.98%

XPEV             .70%

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


2 comments:

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Last week Down 2.04%

YTD week Down 14.60%

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sorry for the delay--

Last week: +2.55% (YTD: -26.24%)
Notable Leaders: SYM
Notable Laggards: ZENV SOXS SNAP

The week was saved thanks to SYM's huge post-earnings gain (+36%), It feels like the market is rangebound until we get better clarity on next year's earnings, so stock picking will be ever more important, with a specific focus on relative strength, although bottom feeding can work well in December as a setup for next year.

Holdings: SOXS SYM PLAY GTLB SNAP LYFT UPWK IONQ BMEA ZENV, cash 0%

Stocktrader