US stock market has gone through " another recession scare "
US stock market gone through another " September swoon "
When most Indices went below 50 DMA in early September, technicians positioned themselves for a test of 200 DMA.....
BUT like many strategy & predictions, 200 DMA did not happen....
Then a " frenzy to cover downside strategy happened "
Low & behold in no time we are ABOVE 50 DMA everywhere including small caps....
THUS...It IS highly recommended NOT to believe in ones own thesis ever....always think...WHAT IF IT DIDN'T happen.....then we are NEVER exposed to unilateral strategy...BULL OR BEAR...a diversified strategy works well in " DOOM & EUPHORIA "
SO we are back in " bullish momentum " Fed will put more " fuel on bullish fire on Wednesday "
Fed always late to any party & overreacts.....this time It will be no different.....
SO regroup & join the bullish momo....
Good luck with your own thesis & comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -2.86% (YTD: -3.58%)
Portfolio Leaders: MSTR BMR
Portfolio Laggards: TZA
It was a tough week for the portfolio as the large short position performed poorly while the major indices soared. There was definitely an element of uncertainty removed as it looks like we have a competent presidential candidate now versus major questions before. That said, the economy still appears to be slowing somewhat and the Fed should have lowered interest rates already. If they go 50bps this week, however, they will be moving more quickly towards the 250bps of easing the market expects in the next year. That is a considerable easing effect which could spur some revitalized economic strength signals, although we would then have to watch for inflationary effects. In particular, housing prices seem to be ever rising and I wonder when that bubble needs to deflate somewhat with affordability at an all-time low. For now, I am concerned about 4th quarter outlooks and expect forward earnings estimates to be trimmed -- this should lead to lower stock prices even with the Fed easing. I will know within the next month whether this thesis is correct or not. I stay patient until then because many of my ideas I do not let work before abandoning them (see FIVE).
Holdings: TZA(51%), MSTR(17%), FLYW ZENV PSNL BMR, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week UP 16.90%
YTD UP 10.23%
Saleem
Salem!
Congrats on an awesome week of profits. Hope it will continues for you sir!
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