Sunday, August 3, 2025

US stock market had technical breakdown....

 US stock market had seizure on Friday, slumping below key technical support in key indices.....

How low can we go.....

200 DMA is considered a major support.....

Most traders were " fully aware of this frothiness "

Just lie low until this selling wave passes.....

Switch to better quality stocks after this selling.....

YES I did add to my existing position.....

Here is how my last week ended :

Last week Down 6.65%

YTD             UP 33.28%

Here is my portfolio weighting based on 65% exposure :

UBER      29.39%

GOOG     24.88%

AAPL      23.43%

CRCL      15.21%

SMCI         7.09%

BLOG does NOT give to buy or sell.

Saleem


15 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -7.38% (YTD: -12.94%)
Portfolio Leaders: DAVE
Portfolio Laggards: FATN AEVA ASPI BITU

It was a rough week for the markets and the portfolio (although I was out of town so I didn't "feel" it quite as much). Some much needed profit taking, albeit as a result of very poor jobs numbers, saw big declines in some stocks and leaves us wondering where we go next. I will contend that slow growth economies are actually best for many high fliers as lower interest rates and concentrated positioning leads to many alpha opportunities. I also think that a cooling economy could finally squash the inflation bug that has persisted since covid. I don't want to overreact to any single data dump, but I have seen anecdotally around me that the job market was weaker than the numbers initially indicated, so this does not come as a surprise to me. Even if the timing caught some off-guard, I think this was the biggest risk to the economy anyways, so the portfolio is mostly positioned for this situation. I may need to re-evaluate some of my more economic sensitive names, but overall I am comfortable with where the portfolio sits. This week sees MANY earnings reports and I look forward to evaluations and fresh inputs for many of my companies.

Holdings: DAVE LFMD FEIM UPST OSIS CVCO ASPI MGNI BITU III SSYS AEVA FATN, cash 0%

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold FEIM @ 27.35
Bought SNAP @ 9.51
Added to AEVA @ 15.29

This is a swap for SNAP's earnings tomorrow and with FEIM already announcing and having a nice run. I also added to AEVA because I think the stock price has overreacted to the downside.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with SNAP & more AEVA....

Saleem

Stock Rookie said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with more SNAP, AEVA, and all the earnings this week.

Simon

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem/Simon,

SNAP: tonight
UPST: tonight
LFMD: tonight
DAVE: tmrw morning
MGNI: tmrw night
III: thu morning

A lot to sift through...

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with all earnings.....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

LFMD long term growth strategies in place, short term hiccups, i think it's an overreaction and may add tomorrow.

SNAP still can't seem to monetize and US user growth may be plateauing. It's probably a sell for me tomorrow.

UPST was a fine quarter and seeing a little profit taking in after hours. I will hold that position, watching broader economic conditions as one of the main risks.

Stocktrader

Stock Rookie said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Thank you for LFMD, SNAP, UPST inputs.

Simon

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Earning reports are always challenging....

Good luck with your decision....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold SNAP @ 7.42
Added to LFMD @ 7.27
Added to DAVE @ 202.14
Added small to ASPI @ 9.95

Stocktrader

Stock Rookie said...

Hi Salem & Stocktrader,

Sold SNAP @7.45

Simon

stocktrader_1996 said...

HI Saleem,

Sold UPST @ 73.36
Added to DAVE @ 190.84
Added to BITU @ 55.80
Added small to ASPI @ 10.14 and AEVA @ 14.08

This is a relative value trade mostly where UPST was fine but DAVE was very good and is getting hit too hard. Also, I wanted more BITU exposure and this was the chance. ASPI is looking very good on the chart and AEVA is looking very bad on the chart (hence, a good add for a solid long term name).

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with add-on ASPI DAVE LFMD

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Simon,

SNAP just can't find the formula to monetize its nearly 1B MAUs. It's a shame really, but it's the reality.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold OSIS @ 221.58
Bought BKSY @ 18.61

Swapping a "trade" for a long term idea given the prices currently. I will probably do the same with MGNI tomorrow.

Stocktrader